March 12, 2015

Everton v Dynamo Kyiv Asian Handicap Preview – Thursday 12th March

Everton v Dynamo Kiev – Goodison Park at 20:05 live on ITV 1

Everton host Ukranian side Dynamo Kiev tonight at Goodison Park in the 1st leg of the last 16 in the Europa league. Martinez will be looking for his side to continue their impressive form in Europe which has seen them beat current favourites for the competition, Wolfsburg twice in the group stages. They face a tough tie against Sergei Rebrov’s Kiev who have real pace and can cause any side problems on the counter attack.

Everton’s poor domestic form continues, picking up just one win in their last 12 league matches, L7 D4. They are in 14th in the Premier League, 6 points above the relegation zone and if their current form continues, they could well end up in a relegation scrap at the end of the season.

The Europa League has proved to be a welcome relief for the Toffee’s and there is no question their best form has come in Europe, why they can’t replicate that domestically is a mystery.

Everton won their group, losing only once after they had already qualified. Their 2 wins over Wolfsburg certainly stand out but they were equally impressive in the last 32, thrashing Young Boys 4-1 away and 3-1 at home.

The Toffee’s strikers score more freely in Europe and their defence is a lot tighter. In their 8 matches they average 2.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. If they can keep up their strong performances, the 16.7 you can get them to win the trophy will look huge.

First things first though, Everton need to put in a good 1st leg this evening against a decent Kiev side. They have only lost twice in their 8 Europa league games, but both come away from home against lesser sides than Everton.

Kiev have similar averages as Everton, scoring 2 and conceding 0.87 goals per game. They also have a good record on the road this season, W12 D1 L2 but they don’t seem to like it in England. Kiev haven’t won in 11 when visiting our shores, losing 9, drawing 2. Rebrov will we looking to put that right this evening.

If we were looking solely at domestic league form, my money would be on Kiev, but Everton are a different side in Europe. Kiev are certainly not under-estimated at a general 3.4 with Everton’s top price of 2.38. I make Everton a shorter price than the 2.38 and the odds against on Everton -0.25 is what appeals.

I’m also a little surprised at the Over 2.5 goals price due to both sides scoring records and recent Europa matches being quite open. 75% of the teams respective home and away matches have had 3 goals or more so at 2.25 it certainly seems a bit of value.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Everton -0.25 @ 2.03

Prices correct at time of writing.

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