Everton V West Ham – Goodison Park at 13:30 live on Sky Sports 1
It has been a great run of Asian Handicap recommendations for Eastbridge, so let’s find some more value bets.
Up and down Everton…
Ronald Koeman had a fantastic start to his career on Merseyside, the Toffee’s going five unbeaten to start the season.
However, they have stumbled badly since then and are now on a run of four Premier League games without winning.
This poor run of form does include a creditable draw at Manchester City, but they aren’t in great form either.
Star striker Romelu Lukaku has been in great form so far with six goals in eight games. Plus, new signings Yannick Bolasie and Ashley Williams have had a positive impact on the team.
Unfortunately, more established players Ross Barkley, Gerard Deulofeu, Aaron Lennon and Leighton Baines have disappointed so far this season.
Koeman’s team are undefeated at home so far this season and will be desperate to win against West Ham.
They have only registered one goal in three of their four home games so far, the fans expect more!
West Ham’s season is almost the exact opposite to that of Everton’s, four defeats from their opening five games.
But, now they have won two in row without conceding and are unbeaten in their last three. Their opponents not have been the strongest, but it’s never easy to get back to winning in this division.
This trip to Goodison Park should prove a stern test, but one the Irons need to gauge their progress.
Slaven Bilic took a risk by changing to three centre backs against Crystal Palace, but it paid off. Despite Aaron Creswell’s sending off in that game, he stuck with the formation against Sunderland and won again.
Creswell should return for this match and with Michail Antonio on the other flank, the Hammers have quality out wide.
Manuel Lanzini is back in the side to complement Dimitri Payet, who is one of the best players in Europe.
Stats, data and prices…
The early prices have opened up with the hosts as 1.82 favourites to win, while West Ham are 4.60 underdogs.
Based on my Premier League data sheet, 124 home teams have fallen into a similar price range. With 73 (58.87%) of them claiming all three points, recent history suggests that these teams are outperforming expectation.
The away teams in these encounters have won just 21 (16.93%) times, which does not bode well for Bilic’s team.
The total goals data is much more balanced, with 69 (55.64%) of the games ending with Over 2.5 Goals.
But, with Everton only keeping two and West Ham three clean sheets so far this season, the goals could flow.
Everton have played 13 games in a similar price range over the past three years, with a record of W6 D4 L3. In these games they scored 25 goals, while also conceding 13 for an average of 2.92 goals per game.
A win percentage of 46.15% might not be that impressive, but they did cover the Asian Handicap line five times.
West Ham do not have a good away record in similar circumstances, P8 W0 D4 L4, with just 6 goals scored and 11 conceded.
However, they have only lost by two or more in one of those games, with just three games ending as a full loss on the main Asian line.
Asian Handicap & Total Goals…
The main Asian Handicap line here is +/-0.75 and based on West Ham’s price of 1.90, they are good value.
Their form is improving, while Everton’s has been in decline and recent history is on our side, as shown earlier.
Regarding goals, I am not convinced either way, if I had to pick I would say Over 2.5 is preferred. However, the price is still not really enough value to back with cold hard cash.
The Hammers got a moral boosting win over Chelsea in the EFL cup on Wednesday night. But, they played a strong team, who might be tired now, they have a bad record against Everton too.
But, I like their new formation and believe they will get something from this match. Plus, they are the value in the market and are capable of claiming at least a point on Sunday.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: West Ham +0.75 at 1.90
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, Asian Handicap specialists.