Dnipro v Napoli – Dnipro-Arena at 20:05 live on ITV4

Despite dominating the 1st leg at the Stadio San Paolo last week, Napoli’s lack of finishing has left Dnipro with a decent chance of making their first European cup final. Napoli are still odds on to qualify, best price 1.54, and will have to score in the Ukraine to do so after Dnipro’s late equaliser in the 1st leg.

Many Asian Handicap betting punters were left empty handed after the stoic display by Dnipro last week. Napoli enjoyed 70% of the possession and created 20 opportunities with 7 shots on target but only managed to put one past their opponents. A similar performance tonight, with better, clinical finishing, should see the Neapolitan’s through but Dnipro won’t make it easy for them.

The Warriors of Light have their defence to thank for getting them to the semi finals, conceding only 10 times in their 13 Europa League matches. They have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 European home matches and another one tonight will take them to take them to Warsaw on 27th May.

Despite being underdogs for the match and the tie, Dnipro may feel some pressure being the home side and having the advantage from the 1st leg. Against the best attack in the competition, they may need to score which they have had trouble doing so far this campaign, scoring just 12 times.

Yevhen Seleznyov goal 10 minutes from time gave Dnipro the upper hand and caused Napoli’s odds to lift the trophy to drift from 2.35 to 3.0 but you can’t write off Rafa Benitez in a European competition. Rafa is looking to become the first manager to win the Europa League and Uefa Cup with 3 different clubs and reach his 5th European final from 7 semi’s.

Partenopi’s away record in Serie A this year has been mediocre but their form on the road in Europe will give them hope. They have not lost in their last 4 Europa League away matches and have scored 10 in their 6 away days. They average 2 goals a game in the competition and Rafa will be relying on the likes of Higuain, Cellejon and Hamsik to be on form tonight to help them through.

In terms of goals, the value has to be backing over 2.5 at 2.17 but this match could honestly go either way. If Dnipro play as well as they have done at home this campaign they will frustrate Napoli but not enough to keep them at bay. If Napoli score early, it will force the home side to attack which could transform the match into a more open game with more goals. A few quid on the Overs is a good bet but my official recommendation is to back Napoli.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Napoli -0.5 @ 2.0

Prices correct at time of writing.

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