Bayern Munich v Barcelona – Allianz Arena at 19:45 live on ITV 1
Both Champions League semi-final first leg matches last week did not disappoint fans or Asian handicap punters alike, with open attacking football played by all four teams and we picked up a handsome profit from the first leg after backing Barcelona -1 at 2.36!
Returning Barcelona legend Pep Guardiola audaciously set his understrength Bayern Munich team up, to man mark the Catalan’s all over the pitch! This crazy ploy had Gary Neville losing his mind in the commentary box, as Barca set about Bayern like a cat toying with a blind, three legged mouse.
It was quite unbelievable that the Germans managed to avoid conceding in the first fifteen minutes of the match and luckily for them Pep had seen enough to realise that he had to be more cautious against such a potent attack minded team like Barcelona.
However, despite keeping Messi and co at bay for so long the Argentinian genius finally broke the deadlock deep into the second half. That proved to be the straw that broke Bayern’s back as Luis Enrique’s side got their reward for putting Die Bayern under unrelenting pressure as they ran out worthy 3-0 winners in the end, which virtually guaranteed their place in the final as well.
Bayern enter this match on what is probably their worst run of form in the last three years, as they have now lost three games in a row and were knocked out of the German cup competition by Borussia Dortmund prior to that. The last time Bayern Munich lost three games in a row was over 4 years ago but this time they have lost all three without even scoring a single goal.
Clearly Pep and his team have nothing to lose tonight and will be playing under very little pressure because nobody really expects them to come back from such a bad position but, at the same time there will be some pressure on them to avoid a big humiliating defeat.
Last season Real Madrid won 4-0 in the second leg semi-final match in Munich and another similar loss today would not go down well with the powers that be at the Allianz Arena. Last week’s defeat was also their third Champions League semi-final game without a goal and while still missing Arjen Robben & Franck Ribery, it is again going to be hard for them to score the goals they need to upset the odds tonight.
With Bayern having no choice but to attack the game looks set up perfectly for Barca’s three amigos in attack, the 112 goal scoring combination of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar. The three South American’s have reached new heights of brilliance as each week of the season has passed and they will relish the chance to complete the rout of their German rivals this evening.
After the first leg mauling and with no players returning from injury Bayern are a huge 2.62 to win the match tonight, which is easily the biggest price they have been at home this season. In fact they were only 1.74 to beat Real Madrid at home in last year’s second leg match, so there is obviously value in their price.
The Asian handicap betting line is set at 0 (DNB) and with the home team priced around 1.92 this also offers great value based on our algorithm prices. However, we simply cannot back Pep and his team tonight, even with such great value on offer.
A better option can be found in the Asian handicap total goals market where we can get an odds against price for three or more goals to be scored. Barca have scored thirteen goals in their five Champions League away games and Bayern have racked up an incredible nineteen goals in five home games in the competition so far.
With the German’s needing to score at least three and the world’s best attacking trio on the other side, the over three goals bet is an obvious choice tonight and should deliver us a tidy profit.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 3 Goals at 2.05
Price correct at the time of writing.
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