ATP Washington – Quarter-Final – Sam Querrey v Gael Monfils
Yesterday’s recommendation of Nicole Gibbs as a heavy underdog to beat Coco Vandeweghe was a tough loser, with the 3.75 shot taking the first set before succumbing in three sets. However, trading advice on laying Vandeweghe pre-off and trading out in-play would have yielded solid profits.
We return to the US hard courts for today’s handicap betting preview with Sam Querrey taking on Gael Monfils at around midnight tonight UK time.
Querrey is currently adored by the market after a good run of form and big win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, and it appears that his many years of mental frailties and mediocre performances have been forgotten within a month.
This is a common market mistake – a player almost 29 years of age has a career turnaround pretty much never – and something that my model often takes advantage of.
This is the case today, with the big-serving American short at 2.43 against the enigmatic Frenchman, Monfils, who hasn’t played much of late after an injury lay-off. This fitness doubt stopped me getting involved with backing Monfils this week but he has eliminated those doubts, dropping just 10 games in four sets combined against solid opponents in Yen-Hsun Lu and Borna Coric.
My model feels that Monfils is value tonight to complete the hat-trick, with the flashy showman holding 86.5% on hard court in the last 12 months, and breaking opponents 28.6% (combined 115.1%). This data makes him a top-ten hard courter.
Opponent Querrey has held serve a similar 86.4% and broken opponents a poor 14.8% (combined 101.2%), which indicates that he is solid but unspectacular on the surface generally.
The value selection Monfils also has a very strong record in best of three set matches as a slight favourite priced between 1.50 and 1.99, winning 53/77 career matches in this price range.
In the last two years, he has played 12 matches with this filter and won 10, and in these matches Monfils has covered the -2 game handicap line in eight of these wins, with one push, for an 8-1-3 record for covering this line.
This historical data gives us extra confidence for our position, and I’m more than happy to recommend backing Monfils -2 games at 1.93 today.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Gael Monfils -2 games at 1.93
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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