ATP Challenger Winnipeg – Quarter-Final – Philip Bester v Peter Gojowczyk
After a couple of disappointing results, Dustin Brown got us back on the winning trail yesterday morning with a comfortable handicap betting victory over Aljaz Bedene, with the German eventually taking not only the handicap, but the match in three sets.
With pre-match value being thin on the ground in the ATP today, I want to drop down to the Challenger Tour where there’s an interesting match on the hard courts in Winnipeg tonight between Philip Bester and Peter Gojowczyk, due to start at around 4pm UK time.
I make Gojowczyk the overwhelming favourite for this match, with my model making him the best player remaining in this field, and Bester the worst. Despite this, the market currently makes the German bigger than my model price, with the oddsmakers pricing him at around 1.40 at the time of writing.
Gojowczyk has advanced to the quarter-final stage for the loss of just one set, against Sekou Bangoura and Mitchell Krueger. Bester managed an excellent win last night against the top seed Bjorn Fratangelo, a match in which my model priced the market as correct.
In that match, Bester was clearly rather fortunate. On the surface, it looks like a 4-6 7-5 6-1 win indicated that he ran away with the match in the latter stages, but that only tells part of the story. My new blog post http://www.tennisratings.co.uk/results-orientated-decisions looks at this phenomenon in a little more detail, but when you consider that Bester obtained eight break points in the match (converting four) and Fratangelo only converted two of his eleven, it appears that Fratangelo had more chances in the match – he just didn’t take them.
This definitely adds confidence to my position on Gojowczyk, who has an excellent record at covering game handicaps when a favourite priced between 1.20 and 1.50. In these matches in the last 12 months, Gojowczyk has won 15 of 19 matches, and in those 15 wins he failed to cover the -3 game handicap just twice, with two further pushes.
Taking the pushes out of the equation, this data would indicate that Gojowczyk has covered the -3 game line on 11/17 occasions in the last 12 months in the relevant price range for today (64.7% implied odds), which converts to a price around 1.55 for him doing so this evening.
Currently this line is available at 1.79, which is a very solid value proposition indeed, and is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Peter Gojowczyk -3 games at 1.79
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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