ATP Challenger Lima – 2nd Round – Michael Linzer vs Christian Garin
With today’s ATP Indoor Hard court matches offering little value, we drop down to the clay courts of the Lima Challenger for today’s Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker preview, with Michael Linzer taking on Christian Garin at around 6:30pm UK time.
The Austrian, Linzer, has made the effort to travel to South America for a shot at a few Challenger events on his favoured clay, and has been a little unlucky with his draws, with an opening round defeat to top 100 player Facundo Bagnis in Buenos Aires, and he lost to the young Norwegian phenomenon last week in the second round in Santiago.
Given the costs involved for him to do this, it is almost certain that he will be very keen to give his best efforts, and he took advantage of his lucky loser spot in the first round, beating another young prospect, Kamil Majchrzak, as a heavy underdog, in the first round.
Opponent Garin has had a terrible run of form, winning just five of 17 matches since the start of June – the vast majority on his preferred clay. Three of his wins were as a very heavy favourite, against opponents he’d be expected to easily beat.
Garin is the favourite for the match, with the market currently pricing him at around 1.62, following a little market support for Linzer. My model made this large value on Linzer, actually pricing him as the favourite.
The Tournament So Far
As mentioned above, Linzer impressively got the better of Majchrzak in the first round, getting a lucky loser spot after losing to Hans Podlipnik-Castillo in the final qualifying round.
Garin, a 20 year old Chilean, who has probably not lived up to his much hyped potential so far, had a virtual bye against Juan Patino in the opening round – a player barely in the top 1000 in the world – and a straight set victory was no real shock, although Garin giving six break points (Patino only took one) perhaps was more surprising.
Both players have below average stats on clay in Challengers – with my expectation that Linzer will hold slightly more (71.7% to 69.2%) and break slightly more also (27.7% vs 24.7%). This generated projected hold percentages of 74.3% for Linzer, and 68.8% for Garin – indicating Garin is likely to be vulnerable on serve, and Linzer should be the slight favourite for the match.
On clay, priced as a slight 2.00-2.99 underdog, Linzer’s 12-14 career record shows he has frequently been under-rated by the market, with this also generating a double figure ROI based on Pinnacle closing prices.
However, he’s historically either won the match or lost in straight sets (only three of his defeats were via a deciding set), and this reduces our handicap betting options significantly, particularly considering that he failed to cover the +2.5 game handicap line in most of his defeats as well.
Considering the historical trends, the best way to take advantage of the value on Linzer is to back him outright for the match win, currently available at 2.37, but likely to drop further before the match starts.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Michael Linzer To Win at 2.37
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, winners welcome!