ATP Challenger Gatineau – Semi-Final – Peter Polansky v Felip Peliwo
Yesterday’s recommendation of Nicolas Almagro against Dusan Lajovic ended in disappointment with the Spaniard losing a tight match of few break points, so we need to pick ourselves up and move on with today’s handicap betting recommendation.
There isn’t much value on the card at the Olympics or Los Cabos today so we must drop down to Challenger level, and there’s a match that catches my eye between two home players in the Gatineau Challenger in Canada tonight.
Peter Polansky takes on Felip Peliwo at around 9pm UK time tonight and Polansky is rated as favourite by the market at 1.26. Even at such a low prices, this is still generous according to my model, with the youngster Peliwo’s stats still very poor indeed.
Polansky – statistically better on hard than his ranking outside the world’s top 200 suggests – has eased into this round with wins over Felix Auger Aliassime and Finn Tearney in straight sets, whilst Peliwo has needed to recover from a set down twice to beat Andrew Whittington (who must have been shattered after playing many matches in the last month) and his limited countryman Philip Bester.
These wins for Polansky are quite commonplace when he is a heavy favourite – when priced below 1.50 on hard court since January 2013 he is 24-7, and he has won in straight sets on 16 of these 31 occasions. However, with the price on Polansky to win 2-0 being around the 1.80 mark, it’s difficult to justify this line, so I want to look at the game handicap line for this match.
When a heavy underdog on hard court, Peliwo has won just two of 12 completed matches, against Ruben Bemelmans and the previously mentioned win over a likely fatigued Whittington. In the 10 defeats, he’s only managed to cover the +3.5 game handicap line once and with Polansky having covered the -3.5 game line in his last seven wins as a heavy favourite on hard court, this looks like the game handicap line to take this evening.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Peter Polansky -3.5 games at 1.62
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.