Tottenham v Manchester City – White Hart Lane at 14:15 live on Sky Sports 1
It has been a profitable week with Arsenal landing both parts of my Asian Handicap recommendation in the Champions League.
This weekend I am looking for value in the Premier League, as Manchester City face Tottenham at White Hart Lane.
Tottenham under the radar…
What with all the hype around the Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Liverpool, Spurs went into the 2016/17 season unnoticed.
Their lack of big money signings over the summer, was also a factor in their lack of air time thus far.
However, Mauricio Pochettino’s team are again looking strong at the back and hard to beat, with just 3 goals conceded.
Up front, any team would feel the loss of Harry Kane, who lacked form before getting injured. But, Spurs have a number of creative and goal scoring players who have stepped up in his absence.
This top of the table clash, could see City extend their lead to a maximum of seven points, if results go their way.
But, Spurs should prove to be difficult opponents to overcome, especially in front of their own partisan supporters.
High flying City…
Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City was a long time coming, but fans must agree, he looks worth the wait.
The Citizens came flying out of the traps this season, with six wins in their opening six Premier League games.
But, it has not all been quite as plain sailing as their perfect record looks. Goalkeeper Joe Hart lost his place in the team and ended up at Torino, while Vincent Kompany is injured again!
Plus, Kevin de Bruyne is out with injury and they struggled to a 3-3 draw with Celtic on Wednesday night.
Defence has been Pep’s major concern so far, with just four clean sheets in eleven games this season.
However, with Sergio Aguero up front, David Silva and Raheem Sterling playing well in support, City can score at will.
Data and trends…
Manchester City have a strong record against Spurs overall, but last season they lost both league encounters against them.
Tottenham are not often underdogs when playing at home, especially in recent seasons. In fact over the past three seasons, they have only been underdogs at home in the league eight times.
From those eight matches Spurs managed to win just three, however the most recent was last season’s 4-1 defeat of City.
Spurs usually tight defence struggled in these games against stronger opponents, they kept just one clean sheet in eight.
This unsurprisingly led to these games being high scoring encounters, with an average of 3.37 goals per game.
City when priced in this range or bigger recently, when away from home, have a poor record of P15 W4 D3 L8.
Again, these matches have featured a lot of goals with an average of 3.33 per game over those 15 games.
With their attacking options, it is perhaps no surprise that they have scored in all but two of those games.
Asian Handicap and total goals…
The Asian Handicap line for this match is set at +0.25 for the hosts and the price has steadily shrunk.
It opened around even money and despite the reduced value available now, Spurs still look a solid bet for Sunday.
Especially when you consider City’s porous defence, their record in similar games and while missing De Bruyne and Kompany.
I am sure we will see a few goals in this game, but with the Asian Total Goals line of 2.75 at 2.0, there is no value to be had.
A goals bet that I do like in this match, is City to score over 0.5 first half goals at 1.96. Pep’s team have scored before half time in all six Premier League games and both Champions League games as well.
Asian Handicap Recommendations: Tottenham +0.25 at 1.87 and Manchester City Over 0.5 First Half Goals at 1.96
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, Asian Handicap specialists.