Aelesunds v Sandefjord & Viking v Lillestrom
Part of the beauty of Asian handicaps lines in not having to wait for a prolonged period of staking on overpriced outsiders to deliver a ROI.
A great example of this comes in the first of Sunday’s games on Norway when Viking host Lillestrom.
Viking, now 5th in the league, are a decent benchmark in the Tippilaegen and still have an outside of challenging for Europe. Head Coach Kjell Jonevret was quoted on Twitter this week as being frustrated at how poor his teams set pieces had been recently. Maybe the idea of a kicking and set piece coach that Danish champs Midtjylland employ isn’t so crazy after all.
That aside, their challenge this week comes in the form of Lillestrom who come off the back of win against lowly Mjondalen and are now undefeated in 5. The Canaries have their limitations, and definitely come into the team with the weaker overall profile having only collected 2 points from their last 4 away games.
But the difference in ability is not as wide as the bookmakers make out with the home team quoted at 1.52 or thereabouts, this is where the value in Asian handicaps kicks in.
Vikings strong overall record at home is masked by the relative weakness of some of the teams they have faced. Victories against Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt are to be expected, and are still capable of being outplayed by modest opposition at home as Haugesund showed 8 weeks ago.
Lillestrom are available (+1.25 goals) at 1.80. This line feels far too high and even a single goal victory for Viking nets us ‘half’ a win. Should Lillestrom get anything out the game then we cop the lot.
I expect this to be close so taking Lillestrom with the head start has to be the way to play it.
Elsewhere on Sunday Aelesunds must be licking their lips for the visit of last placed Sandefjord.
The Tangos of Aelesunds have underachieved this season and a current standing of 11th is mostly to blame on their problems at the back.
Aelesunds can always be relied upon to find the net at home, however with their own problems at the back are sure to present Sandefjord more opportunities than they are usually accustomed to.
I had the expected goal level for the game at around the 3.4 mark so with 2.05 being available in the 3 total goals Asian market, there is nearly half a goal of value in there so this has to be the bet. Make sure it is in the Asian market however so 3 goals total results in your money back.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lillestrom +1.25 at 1.80
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Aelesunds v Sandefjord Over 3 goals Asian at 2.05
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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