Start v Odd & Rosenborg v Valerenga
This Sunday sees 5 more fixtures from Norway’s Tippeligaen, with 2 games in particular offering some juicy value to get stuck into. The first of these comes when Odd BK make the trip to the sunny climbs (by Norway’s standard) of Start.
Start find themselves somewhat in a mini-crisis. 4 defeats on the bounce with a 12-2 goal differential sees them without a win in the league since out-muscling Staebek at the start of July. Odd BK on the other hand can count themselves unlucky not to get a result against Molde last week, and 2 victories against Mjondalen and Tromso sees them in good heart.
I was a little disappointed to find Odd as short at 2.05 in the match odds market as I was expecting the away factor to bring in a little more value, so instead, look to the goals market for the value.
Based on the data I have, and how open the play in Norway usually is, I was expecting a goal line for the game to be set at 3.25/3.5. These teams average a 3.33 and 3.56 goal total respectively home and away, and with both teams coming off 3 high scoring fixtures, a line of 3.00 for the game is too low. Back over 3 goals at 2.00 in the Asian market and sit back and watch the goals fly in.
The big clash of the week comes when Norwegian powerhouse Rosenborg are paid a visit by Valerenga. Rosenborg look well on their way to their 23rd title since 1967, and at over halfway into the season, are yet to suffer their first home defeat. Home team odds of 1.37 reflect the expected dominance of last season’s runners up. However this is potentially overlooking the quality that Valerenga bring on their travels.
Valerenga have managed an average of over 2 goals a game on their travels this season, and Kjetil Rekdal, a name some of you may be familiar with you through his long run in the Norway’s midfield through the 90’s, has Valerenga looking at their most potent for years and fighting for a European place.
Valerenga have been given a little bit of a dis-service here, especially considering they have only suffered one defeat away from home all season. They also managed to keep Real Madrid (yes, ‘the’ Real Madrid) goalless in midweek, even if only a friendly. Odds against for the Boho’s getting a goal and a half head start is just a too rich. Expect them to be competitive and hold the line.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Start v Odd Over 3.0 goals @ 2.00
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Valerenga +1.5 to beat Rosenborg @ 2.05
Season to Date: 4pts staked, 4.80pts returned, 0.80pts profit
Prices correct at time of writing.
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