ATP Wimbledon – Quarter Final – Stan Wawrinka vs Richard Gasquet.
The men’s tournament at Wimbledon reaches the quarter-final stage today and there isn’t much value screaming off the card today. The three tournament favourites are justifiably heavy favourites, so we look at today’s closest match in the betting for our tennis betting recommendation.
As is often the case, Stan Wawrinka is over-rated by the bookmakers and it’s difficult to justify his price at around 1.50 against Richard Gasquet in what is being dubbed the ‘battle of the backhands’.
Looking at the historical grass court records of the two players, Wawrinka is 25-19 on grass in his career, with Gasquet significantly better at 51-21. In these career matches, Gasquet has held 2.5% more and broken 4.6% more, so it is clear that overall he has been the better grass-courter.
In the last two years Wawrinka has the marginal edge, winning 75% to 69% on the surface, holding 92.4% more to Gasquet’s 90.5%, but again Gasquet has the edge on return, breaking 5% more (21.7% to 16.7%).
Based on these figures it is clear that both players are going to be able to hold serve relatively easily and a tiebreak in the first set is around a 40% likelihood – a tight match is in prospect.
Considering this, a straight-sets win is unlikely, but 1.36 about Gasquet +2.5 sets doesn’t appeal at all and I’d rather take the overall 3.08 about him winning the match than the 2.05 +1.5 sets.
My one concern regarding the Frenchman is his tendency to struggle against top 10 players but quite interestingly players who have difficulties against these opponents have better records against Wawrinka (for example Kevin Anderson).
However given the statistical closeness of this match-up I’m going to take the risk here and recommend the Frenchman at a nice price.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Gasquet at 3.08
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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