ATP Hamburg – Second Round – Benoit Paire vs Tommy Robredo
The clay court season continues this week with four ATP and WTA events on the surface (as well as a hard court tournament in Atlanta), and by far the highest quality field can be seen at the Hamburg 500, where we find a solid handicap betting proposition.
In today’s second round matches, there is a re-match of last week’s Bastad final as Benoit Paire takes on Tommy Robredo, looking to get his second win in quick succession over the Spanish veteran.
However, there is a big pricing discrepancy between Sunday’s final in Sweden and today’s match, with Robredo a 1.51 favourite then, compared to around 1.90 today. This is a huge over-reaction from just one match, and this is quite frequent in the markets, which tend to over-value very recent form and head to head matches.
In truth, Tennis is a sport where small margins divide success and failure, and it’s very rare that a 40-tick difference from one match to another in the space of three days is an accurate adjustment.
This is evidenced by the hold/break stats on clay over the last 12 months, with Paire holding 75.2% and breaking 30.8% (combined 106.0% – the best score of his career) and Robredo doing so 81.7% and 28.8% respectively (110.5%).
These stats gave Robredo a model price of 1.64, making today’s prices decent value on the the 33 year old. In the last two years, in all but two best of three set matches that he has won priced between 1.50 and 1.99 on clay, he has covered a -2 game margin, and across all surfaces he recorded 12/16 wins by this margin, with two pushes in the same time period – in short when Robredo wins matches, he almost always does so by this margin.
All things considered, I like Robredo to get revenge on Paire for Sunday’s defeat in the final of Bastad, and cover the handicap line at odds against.
Recommendation: Back Robredo -2 games at 2.14
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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