ATP Stockholm – Second Round – Jeremy Chardy vs Federico Delbonis
There are three indoor hard events on the ATP Tour, and second round matches conclude today. On the quick courts of Stockholm, I like the handicap betting chances for the favourite in the opening match to start the schedule with a facile win.
In this Jeremy Chardy, currently available at around 1.25, takes on the Argentinian clay-courter Federico Delbonis.
Delbonis’ record away from the dirt can be accurately described as horrific. I remember doing well a few years ago opposing Pere Riba when he was playing non-clay court matches and Delbonis is probably the closest to Riba in the current top 100 in terms of atrocious stats.
On the surface, reasons why this is the case are a little puzzling. He has a reasonable serve and not that bad a forehand either, and it wasn’t until I spoke with an ex-top 10 ATP player that I know well that I found the answer. He maintained that Delbonis has a technical issue with his forehand that is exacerbated on faster surfaces. In that case, the Argentinian got unlucky as Stockholm is the fastest surface of the three events this week!
On hard and indoor hard courts in the last two years, Delbonis is a woeful 5-19 (21%) and in these matches, he’s held serve just 75.3% and broken opponents 12.5% (combined 87.8%). In short, this translates to him not being even an average Challenger player away from clay.
Chardy’s record is much more solid. He’s 38-32 on hard and indoor in the same time period (54%) and held 84.5% and broken 18.0% (combined 102.5%).
Break point data also favours the Frenchman – this is even more relevant given that chances are more premium on a quick indoor court. Overall, the data priced Chardy at 1.12, offering strong value on current market prices.
It’s difficult to look at historical trends because Chardy is very rarely priced this short – on hard or indoor hard just twice in the last two years. Delbonis, in his career in best of three set matches, is 1-11 on hard/indoor hard priced over 3.00 and his defeats came via an average of 5.81 games. Eight of his eleven defeats came via more than 3.5 games, and this is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Jeremy Chardy -3.5 games at 1.70
Prices correct at time of writing.
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