ATP Stockohlm – Semi-Finals – Jack Sock vs Richard Gasquet
We are now at the semi-final stage of the five ATP and WTA tournaments this week and followers of this column should be in great heart with two from two winning handicap betting recommendations this week, and four from the last five including last week’s previews.
On the relatively quick courts of Stockholm at 12pm, Jack Sock takes on Richard Gasquet and I like the chances of the young American to claim at least a set against his more experienced opponent.
Sock has had a solid year and is now in contention for Australian Open seeding which will be helped by a strong performance in Sweden. Statistically, there really isn’t much between the two players – on hard or indoor hard in the last 12 months, Sock has held serve 85.1% and broken opponents 22.6% (combined 107.7%) – very impressive stats. Gasquet’s stats are almost identical – he’s held serve 85.0% and broken 22.6% (107.6%).
On this basis it’s very difficult to comprehend market prices of around 1.60 about the Frenchman – bringing further adjustments into the equation my model priced him up at 1.85.
Sock has been traditionally under-rated in these spots, winning 8/13 as a slight 2.00-2.99 SP underdog in the last 12 months and 25/50 in his career.
In addition to this, he’s taken at least a set in 11/13 matches in the last 12 months and has never had a heavy defeat – his straight set defeats came via 6-3 7-6 and 7-6 6-4 scorelines.
With projected holds a little on the high side it is clear we can expect a tight match with very little between the two players. Sock is absolutely capable of taking at least a set at 1.58 but given the scoreline tendencies and Stockholm being a quick court, I prefer taking the slightly bigger 1.69 on him +3 games.
Recommendation: Back Jack Sock +3 games at 1.69
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker, winners welcome!