ATP Challenger Sacramento – Quarter-Final – Matt Reid vs Nicolas Meister
With ATP and WTA matches in the Far East finished for the day, there’s almost 24 hour Tennis action around the clock including the Challenger Tour, where we find today’s handicap betting recommendation.
In tonight’s quarter-final in Sacramento, 26 year old American qualifier Nicolas Meister has been backed in from around 1.70 to just short of 1.60 for his match tonight with Matt Reid, a 25 year old Australian wild card.
I’m not at all surprised about this move as this price would still seem value about Meister, as my model priced him at 1.44.
In the last two years in Challengers on hard court, Meister has held serve a relatively weak 72.7%, but his strong return game has seen him break opponents 32.1% in the same time period (104.8% combined), making him a pretty solid player at this level, despite his ranking outside the top 300 in the world.
Reid’s statistics indicate that he is neither serve or return orientated, but is much a worse player overall at a total of 95.1% combined hold/break percentage.
Meister’s historical performance as a favourite priced between 1.50 and 1.99 would suggest that his low world ranking frequently sees him under-rated by the market – he is 10-3 in his career in this price range, and all his wins have come by at least three games.
Backing Meister -2.5 games is available at a current 1.86 and this seems decent value given the discrepancy between market and model prices, and his historical tendenices.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Nicolas Meister -2.5 games at 1.86
Prices correct at time of writing.
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