ATP Wimbledon – Third Round – Stan Wawrinka vs Fernando Verdasco
Wimbledon moves into the third round today and at around 1pm Stan Wawrinka takes on Fernando Verdasco.
Regular readers may remember a number of handicap betting options presented to oppose Wawrinka and today’s is no different, with Verdasco being able to take at least a set in their three head to head meetings, although the last was in 2012.
On grass, the ability differential between these two players is much smaller than other surfaces, with Wawrinka holding 91.5% and breaking 15.9% in the last two years, and Verdasco holding 89.0% and 15.7%.
These stats make a mockery of the prices of around 1.20 available on the Swiss player, and present a further opportunity to oppose him on the betting handicap today.
On grass at Wimbledon when priced under 1.50, Wawrinka has won 6/11 in straight sets, but four of these were when SP under 1.12 – against the likes of Martin Vassallo Arguello, Eduardo Schwank, Joao Sousa and Victor Estrella. Verdasco’s expected level is much higher than this quartet.
Verdasco’s only match when priced over 3.00 at the venue was a five-set defeat to Andy Murray in 2013 and in his career on grass he has had three matches over this price – a 3-set defeat to Alexandr Dolgopolov at Eastbourne that year, and a tight 7-5 6-4 defeat to Murray again in the last 16 of Queens this year.
All things considered, I feel that with the ability level of these closer than expected, and Wawrinka only having a successful record beating whipping-boys by a 3-0 margin, I like the 1.73 about Verdasco to claim at least a set here.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Verdasco +2.5 sets at 1.73
Price correct at the time of writing.
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