ATP Challenger Poznan – Quarter-Final – Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Jan Satral
There is limited ATP action today with the ‘Hall of Fame’ Championships in Newport playing the two remaining quarter-finals there. On that subject, Newport is the only event which plays quarter-finals over the Thursday and Friday, which creates a lack of handicap betting options in Rhode Island tonight.
Due to this, we drop down to the Challenger Tour today and there’s a decent option in Poznan, where Pablo Carreno-Busta takes on Jan Satral at around 3:30pm UK time.
Carreno-Busta is far too good for this level on clay, and is basically just playing these clay Challenger type events to get cheap ranking points whilst avoiding playing on grass, where he doesn’t thrive. This is evidenced by his clay Challenger stats, where he has held 79.9% and broken 37.9% in the last two years at that level (117.8% combined), making him elite level for Challengers.
World rank 287 opponent Satral is almost 25 and it’s difficult to see him improving a great deal further at that age, although he has upped his rank from the 500s a year ago, and has some decent wins over Josef Kovalik and Evgeny Donskoy on the dirt recently.
However, Carreno-Busta should easily take care of the Czech today and my model made the ATP Tour regular 1.08 to take care of his journeyman opponent, with the market prices of around 1.20 offering some decent value on the Spaniard.
This gives us several handicap betting options, with Carreno-Busta typically taking care of these type of opponents in facile fashion. He’s won 11/17 priced below 1.30 on clay in straight sets in the last 12 months, but this doesn’t highlight the 1.55 about a 2-0 win being value.
I much prefer the -5 games on the game handicap at 1.87 about Carreno-Busta, with him covering this line on nine of these matches in addition to one push, and this forms today’s recommendation.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Pablo Carreno-Busta -5 games at 1.87
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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