ATP Quito Second Round – Victor Estrella Burgos vs Renzo Olivo
After a successful Australian Open, it’s back to the ATP grind this week with three low-level 250 events, and today’s preview takes us to the inaugural main tour event in the Ecuadorian capital Quito, played on clay.
8th seed Victor Estrella Burgos takes on qualifier Renzo Olivo and there is a big difference in quality between the two players. After a superb 2014, the 34 year old veteran Estrella Burgos broke through to the top 100 and is currently ranked at 76. Olivo, who is 12 years his junior, finds himself at 265, a considerable drop from his ranking peak of 179 in October 2013.
Both players have played a considerable amount on clay on the Challenger Tour in the last 12 months and that enables us to make an objective comparison between them.
Estrella’s 12 month Challenger clay record of 21-5 significantly eclipses Olivo’s 8-15 record. In these matches, Estrella has held more (84.4% to 68.6%) and broken more (26.4% to 22.2%). We can see here that Olivo’s 90.8% combined hold/break in Challengers makes him a very mediocre player indeed and one that will never make the breakthrough to the ATP Tour on a regular basis, unless he improves greatly – Estrella is much the better player.
These stats lead to a model price of 1.15 on the Dominican Republic number one, making the current 1.52 superb value.
Something also worth bearing in mind with Estrella Burgos is his penchant for retiring when things get tough, doing so three times in recent history. This information is useful for handicap betting, as it allows us some potential for voids (money back) when he is losing matches. On a general note, finding players like this is very worthwhile.
In addition, Estrella Burgos has a magnificent 28-5 record when starting price favourite in the last 12 months. Priced between 1.35 and 1.65 (around 15 ticks from current price) he won on eight out of ten outings, with six victories coming in straight sets and he covered the -2.5 game handicap line on seven occasions.
However, -2.5 games price is currently 1.76, whilst the 2-0 scoreline is currently trading at 2.40. This is a position I really like and feel it provides the best value for this clash.
Recommendation: Back Victor Estrella Burgos 2-0 at 2.40.
Prices correct at time of writing.