February 11, 2015

Tennis Betting Preview – Wednesday 11th February by @Tennisratings

WTA Antwerp Second Round – Andrea Petkovic vs Alison Van Uytvanck

After a week away from action due to the Fed Cup, the WTA Tour recommenced on Monday, and today’s recommendation is from the Indoor Hard WTA Premier event in Antwerp – the first time this tournament has been on the calendar since 2008.

Andrea Petkovic is serially over-rated away from clay and her current odds of 1.47 illustrate this.  In the last 12 months, she’s 19-5 on clay but a much more average 18-16 on hard or indoor hard courts, so it’s clear which surface she performs best on.

Despite being the higher ranked, and more illustrious player, she does not even boast a 100% combined hold/break percentage, holding 61.1% and breaking 36.5% on hard and indoor hard courts in the last 12 months, and has only won 14 of 29 matches in that time period.

20 year old prospect Van Uytvanck has a more serve orientated game style, but already has a similar surface win percentage to Petkovic, with an 8-11 record.  Despite this mediocre win percentage, the Belgian – who will enjoy home support this week – has held more (64.0%) and broken more (37.1%) than Petkovic on hard or indoor hard courts.

This hold/break percentage discrepancy makes a mockery of the market prices and in addition to this, Petkovic endured a tough weekend playing Fed Cup for Germany, requiring 12-10 and 8-6 (there are no tiebreaks in Fed Cup) final set wins against Sam Stosur and Jarmila Gajdosova respectively.  These victories are likely to have taken a physical toll on the German.  Historically, WTA players do not generally perform well following several long matches.

Conversely, Van Uytvanck breezed into round two with a facile 6-2 6-3 win over Magdalena Rybarikova yesterday, and although she played three Fed Cup singles matches at the weekend, she dropped a sum total of 10 games across six sets, so her wins were quick and extremely routine.

Since January 2014, priced between 2.00 and 4.00, Van Uytvanck took at least a set in 14 out of 22 WTA main draw and qualifying matches, winning seven, which is around expectation.  All her wins came via at least a three game margin.

Petkovic’s record as a favourite on hard or indoor hard is woeful in the last 12 months, winning just 12 out of her 21 matches, returning -14.3% ROI based on Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.

Since January 2014, priced between 1.30 and 1.60 on hard or indoor hard courts, Petkovic has dropped at least one set on nine from 11 outings, and clearly this is not a ringing endorsement of her chances of winning in straight sets today.  All but one of her defeats came via at least a two game margin.

Factoring in both players historical tendencies, implied odds of Van Uytvanck winning at least one set equates to around 1.43.  Market prices are much bigger, at 1.83, and therefore this position is an excellent one to take for this match.

Recommendation: Back Alison Van Uytvanck +1.5 sets at 1.83.

Price correct at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings

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