ATP Delray Beach Quarter-Final – Yen-Hsun Lu vs Adrian Mannarino
Delray Beach was the setting for our first selection of the week and it provided a winner, as Adrian Mannarino easily covered the -2 game handicap to despatch of Denis Kudla at odds just shy of evens.
I’m relying on the same player at the same venue to double up for the week with the rapidly improving Frenchman more than capable of eliminating Yen-Hsun Lu, based on the stats.
As mentioned in Wednesday’s preview, the Frenchman is now ranked at 41 in the world, almost at his career best (36) which he achieved last month, after a superb last six months which saw him claim Challenger titles in Segovia, Istanbul, Knoxville and Champaign, and was runner-up in Auckland in the first week of the ATP season.
Mannarino edges the two players hard court win-loss record in ATP Main Tour matches in the last 12 months, winning 12/21 (57%) compared to Lu’s 16/30 record (53%). The man from Chinese Taipei also has worse overall hold/break stats, despite holding more (81.8% to 77.5%) but breaking much less (18.7% compared to 32.0%). These return statistics from Mannarino rank him in the top 10 ATP returners on the surface.
These statistics led me to a model price of 1.54 today, which is exceptional value with Mannarino currently priced around 1.90.
As I said on Wednesday, Mannarino’s record as slight favourite isn’t great but neither is Lu’s as a slight underdog, and we established that there was little difference between backing -2 games and -2.5 games price wise, but there is statistically. Therefore, I again like taking the -2 game line, which is attractively priced at 2.25.
Recommendation: Back Adrian Mannarino -2 games at 2.25.
ATP Delray Beach Quarter-Final – Ivo Karlovic vs Steve Johnson
This recommendation is purely mathematically based.
My pricing model allows me to calculate projected hold percentages for each player and this generated 95.9% for Karlovic and 94.5% for Johnson. These percentages combine to give a 55.4% chance of no breaks in the first set, and this equates to around a 57% chance of a tiebreak in the opening set of the match.
The implied odds of this position are 1.75, but dutching the two players to win the first set gives odds of 4.00 on Karlovic, and 4.33 on Johnson, combining to offer 2.08, equating to around a 9% edge over market prices.
Recommendation: Dutch the 7-6 first set correct scores at 4.00 Karlovic and 4.33 Johnson, combining to offer 2.08.
Prices correct at time of writing.
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