Sheffield Wednesday v Preston – Hillsborough at 15:00
Analysing the markets perception attaches an implied probability of 55.55% with The Owls. As a result, situating Carlos Carvalhal and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%. Observing how previous host teams have performed, generates a probability of 55.73%. Therefore, providing an early indication that value can be obtained by having Sheffield Wednesday on side. However, the market that produced the most interest was that of +2.5 goals. The market currently perceives the occurrence of +2.5 goals at 45.04%, which after observing a significant number of games appears to be on the low side. Breaking down the concluded games that have been attached with identical market conditions, indicate that +2.5 goals have occurred in 51.31% of games. Subsequently, equating to odds of 1.95. As a result, producing a potentially beneficial entry point. Analysing the previous 497 games from 2016, that have been situated within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%. The data indicates that host teams have averaged 1.76 goals per game, with 52.11% of those teams obtaining +1.5 team goals. In addition, 266 of the previous 497 games (53.52%) have resulted in both teams scoring. Therefore, with the market currently offering 2.10 an additional stance has developed in order to aid the theory of +2.5 goals occurring.
Following on, the market has attached an implied probability of 19.23% to Preston. As a result, situating Simon Grayson and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Therefore, by analysing how previous games have concluded a probability of 14.21% can be attached to Preston. Further, bolstering the value that can be obtained by having The Owls on side. Consequently, by combining the two individual sources of data an overall probability of 58.60% can be attached with Sheffield Wednesday. Therefore, producing a beneficial entry position on the Match Odds market. However, my focus is on the +2.5 goals market and by observing the data within the parameters in which Preston are positioned produces a probability of 55.32%. Hence, equating to odds of 1.81. Therefore, with the market currently offering 2.22 significant value becomes evident. In addition, by combining both sources of data extracted from the parameters in which both teams are situated generates an overall probability of 53.31% or odds of 1.87. Subsequently, generating a lucrative entry point and significant value. Analysing the previous 1,119 games from 2016, that have been situated within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. The data indicates that travelling teams have conceded on average 1.96 goals per game, with 57.73% of host teams scoring +1.5 team goals. In addition, 576 of the previous 1,119 games (51.47%) have resulted in both teams scoring. As a result, of combining both sources of data an overall probability of 52.49% (1.90) can be attached with both team scoring. Subsequently, establishing value on another market which may well play a monumental part in +2.5 goals occurring.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.22
Prices correct at time of writing.
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