Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham – Hillsborough at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 1
Analysing the market’s current perception on Sheffield Wednesday, indicates an implied probability of 54.34%. As a result, situating ‘The Owls’ within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%. Subsequently, host teams that have possessed an implied probability within the parameters in which Sheffield Wednesday are currently situated have amassed a total of 1084 goals. Consequently, those 1084 goals have occurred in the previous 626 games. Hence, equating to xG rating of 1.73. Furthermore, 318 of the previous 626 games (50.80%) have resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, with the market’s current perception of +2.5 goals at 45.45%, an undervalued approach appears to have been established. As a result, generating an early indication that value is present. Analysing the market’s perception of Sheffield Wednesday in previous weeks can produce an outline into how this game may conclude. As of October 2016 (Sheffield Wednesday with an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%); 56.81% v Ipswich 1-2 loss, 54.94% v Preston 2-1 win, 56.81% v Barnsley 2-0 win and 52.63% v Wolves 0-0 draw. As you can see, although a small sample size. 50.00% of Sheffield Wednesday’s previous four games under identical market conditions, have resulted in three or more goals occurring.
In cooperation, with the market’s perception on ‘The Owls’, an implied probability of 19.23% is evident and attached with Birmingham. As a result, situating Gianfranco Zola and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Subsequently, travelling teams that have possessed similar implied probabilities have amassed a total of 1164 goals. Consequently, those 1164 goals have occurred in the previous 1369 games. Hence, equating to xG rating of 0.85. Furthermore, 754 of the previous 1369 games (55.08%) have resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, with the market’s current perception of +2.5 goals at 45.45%. An undervalued approach has clearly been implemented. As a result, generating a highly beneficial entry point. Analysing the market’s perception of Birmingham in previous weeks can produce a guideline into how this game may conclude. As of October 2016 (Birmingham with an implied probability of 24.93% or less); 11.11% v Newcastle 4-0 loss, 16.66% v Derby 1-0 loss and 19.23% v Norwich 2-0 loss. As you can see, only 33.33% of Birmingham’s previous three games have resulted in three or more goals occurring. However, similar to last week’s preview. This is more of a positive than a negative.
In conclusion, by combining both individual sources of data an overall probability of 52.94% (odds of 1.88) can be attached with three or more goals occurring. Therefore, with the market currently offering 45.45% (odds of 2.20) significant value becomes evident. Furthermore, an xG rating of 1.84 can be attached with Sheffield Wednesday. While an xG rating of 0.88, can be attached to twelfth place Birmingham.
Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.17
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @gscurftrader.
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