Sweden produced a scintillating performance to dismantle a Mexican side, that possessed the potential to secure qualification as the number one seed in Group F. Yet due to the group dynamics and goal difference the Swede’s pipped Juan Carlos Osorio’s side to top spot.
Consequently, the whole of Mexico held their breath as they awaited the result between Germany and South Korea to be confirmed with the potential of being dumped out of this year’s World Cup, the wait was agonising.
However as Javier Hernandez and co slumped to their knees, waiting to hear how their fate would be determined. Janne Andersson, his coaching staff and the Swedish players celebrated their victory and the achievement of reaching the last sixteen. It was a game that they thoroughly deserved to win, producing an xG total of 3.09.
After their gut-wrenching loss to Germany only four days prior and the disgusting behaviour that was witnessed on social media, as Jimmy Durmaz was bombarded with racial abuse. The Swede’s produced a performance worthy of winning any game at this year’s World Cup showing grit, passion and a beautiful brutality in-front of goal. A quality that has been evident throughout Sweden’s three group encounters, posting an impressive conversion rate of 35.71% (shots on target to goals).
“We have handled the things that have happened. I’m so incredibly proud, moved almost by the thought of how we performed in the match. They were so disciplined, so loyal in everything they did.”
Andersson continued, on the subject of his captain Andreas Granqvist “You can never be sure of anything 100 percent in sports, but I know he’s really good at taking penalties. So I did think there was a high likelihood he would score.”
Despite the scenes involving Swedish and German officials, after Toni Kroos late winner. Andersson said their elimination did not give him any joy.
“Not in a million years. I don’t work that way,” he stated. “You play a game, you shake hands afterwards and you wish everyone well for the next game.”
The Swiss secured their qualification with an entertaining two-two draw, against Costa Rica. After taking the lead twice, Kendall Watson and a somewhat fortunate own goal in the ninety-third minute was enough to secure Costa Rica’s first point of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A result that they seemingly deserved, as the xG total from both sides possessed similarities (1.58 – 1.79).
Although Vladmir Petkovic’s side appeared fortunate in their opening game against Brazil, since then the Swiss have been fairly convincing offensively. Producing xG totals of 2.40 and 1.58, Switzerland possess a highly impressive conversion rate of 50.00% (shots on target to goals) from their opening three group games. An element that will certainly be called upon, if they wish to continue on their quest deep into the competition.
“The round of 16 was the minimum objective that we set ourselves that we had to achieve,” Petkovic stated in his post-match press conference.
“Now we can focus on our next opponent. It was a moment when I wanted to field my best players and make sure all of them play.”
Switzerland will have to make do without captain Stephan Lichtsteiner and fellow defender Fabian Schaer, after they were both shown their second yellow card of the tournament in the game against Costa Rica.
Sweden v Switzerland
The current perception attached with the ’Match Odds’ market appears to indicate Sweden possess an implied probability of 31.25%, with the weight of the money within the market favouring Switzerland.
In addition, the current perception attached with Sweden can be observed throughout their market history, with numerous occasions in-which the market assumed ‘Blagult’ to possess an implied probability in the region of 31.25% with encounters against Romania, Chile and the Netherlands all possessing similarities throughout the ‘Match Odds’ market.
How can we take advantage of the markets current perception?
Utilising the Swedish historic market data, will help in identifying previous encounters in-which ‘Blagult’ have possessed a similar perception to the one currently being advertised.
Romania v SwedenSweden v Chile Sweden v NetherlandsExtracting an average implied probability from Sweden’s three ‘Match Odds’ market examples, indicates an average price of around 3.16. Hence the current perception attached with the Swede’s possesses significant similarities, with the working average extracted from ‘Blagults’ previous encounters.
As a result, the current price attached with Sweden appears similar to the market’s perception within the ‘Match Odds’ market when they faced the Netherlands, from which the market attached an implied probability of 29.49%. In correlation with the ‘Match Odds’ market the ‘Asian Handicap’ line has been set at -0.0/+0.0, with the weight of the money within the market seemingly having Switzerland on-side.
However, the market that is currently being overlooked is the ‘Over/Under’ market and specifically the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line. The current ‘Over/Under’ market is seemingly hosting an inefficient line, with the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line sporting an implied probability of 47.84% and given that previous market data is suggesting those number to be inadequate, it may be wise to have the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line on-side.
Although the ‘Over/Under’ market tends to set low opening lines historically during the World Cup and with trends suggesting the goal count diminishes during the knockout phase. The question that remains…
Has the market caught up with the recent introduction of VAR?
By using Switzerland’s previous market data, in the same manner, we extracted information from Sweden’s historic price point logs. Determining whether the current ‘Over/Under’ market is inefficient, will quickly be established.
Slovakia v SwitzerlandSwitzerland v EnglandSlovenia v SwitzerlandThe efficiency of the ‘Over/Under’ market must be questioned, with the introduction of VAR seemingly yet to be incorporated into the pricing structure of these historically low opening lines. The current perception attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line indicates an implied probability of 47.84%.
Yet with both sides possessing impressive conversion rates, it would come as no surprise to observe significant support for the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line.
As the current perception does not appear to be in correlation with previous closing prices, highlighting a significant discrepancy within the market. The average implied probability extracted for the ‘Over 2.0’ goals line from the six market examples provided by both sides, indicates an average price of 1.81.
Therefore with the market’s current perception of 2.09 being widely available, I feel the market has yet to react to some significant underlying aspects. In the process of dismissing both sides attacking process, similarities that were evident in a recent encounter between France and Argentina.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.00 goals at 2.120
Preview by: @gscurftrader.