September 30, 2016

Swansea v Liverpool Asian Handicap Preview – Saturday 1st October by @SC457

Swansea v Liverpool – Liberty Stadium at 12:30 live on Sky Sports 2

Liverpool are short priced favourites (1.45) to register their 4th straight league win when they travel to Swansea tomorrow. Whilst they deserve the favourtism, I’m not confident backing them to cover -1.25 on the Asian Handicap market. One thing I am sure of however, is that there is goals in this game.

Swansea, the pressure is mounting

After finishing last season well, it’s not looking to rosy at the moment for Francesco Guidolin. Four defeats from his last 5 matches has piled the pressure on the Italian.

With just 1 point from a possible 15, after an opening day win against Burnley, the Swans are fourth from bottom.

There has been talk of Ryan Giggs taking over at the Liberty Stadium with the axe hanging over Guidolin, He will be keen to get a positive result from this match to ease the pressure.

Swansea’s defence is a cause for concern, especially going up against Liverpool’s formidable attack. They have failed to keep a clean sheet since the opening day, conceding at least 2 goals in 4 of their 5 matches since.

They look vulnerable at the back. I have know doubt that they will concede at least twice once again, but the good news is, they are scoring themselves.

The Swans have drawn just one blank in their last 6 matches in all competitions, which included 2 matches against Man City and at home to Chelsea.

Against a Liverpool defence which is far from water tight, they should be able to find the back of the net.

Liverpool, goals goals goals

Since the Reds 2-0 reversal at the hands of Burnley, they remain unbeaten in 6 matches across all competitions. In that period that have scored 20 goals and are 2016’s highest scorers on the road (26) in the Premier League.

After three straight wins the EPL, Liverpool are up to fourth and can go second with a win at lunchtime on Saturday. There is no doubt that the Merseysiders can mount a serious title challenge, especially without any European distractions.

One area of weakness, is their defence. They are without a clean sheet in 6 league matches this season. When you are scoring the way Liverpool are though, does it matter?

The Reds will be reminded that it was Swansea who ended their 5 match winning streak in May last season. Klopp has a better side now and in fairness to Swansea, they have weakened.

Asian Handicap & Total Goals Angle

On form alone, it’s unsurprising that Jurgen Klopp’s side are as skinny as 1.45 here. However, Liverpool have won just one of their 5 visits to South Wales, D2 L2. We also can’t forget that away defeat against Burnley just over a month ago. Although everything points to another comfortable win here for the visitors, I’m just not happy backing them at 1.99 -1.25 on the Asian Handicap market. The safer play is backing Over 3 goals.

Liverpool’s matches in the Premier League this season see an average of 4.17 goals, the highest in the league. They, themselves average 2.66 goals per game.

Swansea have also only failed to score twice at home in 2016. With just one blank in their last 6, against a leaky Liverpool defence, I expect them to contribute.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 3 goals at 1.98

Prices correct at time of writing.

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