Midtjylland v Esbjerg & Brondby v Copenhagen
Two games from Denmark on Sunday. First up at 3pm, Midtjylland host Esbjerg.
It’s hard to know what to make of the incredible recent change in fortunes for Midtjylland. The champs had looked invincible all throughout the early season and now look in disarray. 4-1 and 5-0 thumpings off Napoli, a 2-1 defeat to Brondby, an ugly 3-2 defeat to lower league Roskilde in the cup (who have subsequently lost both games since), and last weeks crushing 4-2 home defeat to relegation contenders Viborg.
Even before the first goal went in, there were clear signs that something wasn’t right. Viborg were all over the champs in the first 20 minutes before the opening goal and weren’t ever really competitive after that.
One thing is clear, and that is something is not right. Midtjylland has been defensively superb all season and up until the beginning of October and you don’t just become a bad team over night. However the way completely dominated in their latest defeat against Viborg means they should be treated with kid gloves, at least for the time being.
Ordinarily a trip from 2nd from bottom Esbjerg should hold no fears. Esbjerg have collected 7 points from 7 games on their travels so far and have only won once on the road all season. However last weeks win against what is admittedly a wildly inconsistent Nordsjaelland side, was excellent. They controlled possession,
I’m always wary of taking short term views on form in football analysis. To quote a well overused cliché ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ is particularly relevant in the beautiful game. There’s no doubt Midtjylland will come through this tough patch, there is too much quality there for them not to. However whatever is going on at Midtjylland, it is fast making them incredibly unattractive betting prospects at least in the short term.
You can currently back Esbjerg (+0.5) at 2.1 and although Midtjyllands blip in form, is probably just that, it’s well worth opposing them in the short term.
Later on in Denmark, odds on favourites for the title Copenhagen make the short trip across the city to 4th placed Brondby for the biggest derby in Danish football. The Lions of Copenhagen have now won 7 in 8 and are now fully justified favourites for the championship.
There is an element of concern however that they have had a kind run of fixtures. 6 of their previous 8 fixtures have been at home, and their away record reads far less well. A relatively modest 10 points from 6 games is only a reasonable return for a team of their class.
Brondby are playing their best football of the season with 5 wins in their last 8 including a 1-0 win over Copenhagen in September.
These Copenhagen derbies have a history of being tense and tetchy and with both teams bringing great defensive records into the game, it may just take half an hour to settle down. 3 of the last 4 of these Danish ‘old firm’ games have had a either 0 or 1 goals and under 2.5 is still available at 1.90.
Take the unders for the trend to continue.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Esbjerg +0.5 at 2.1
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Brondby v Copenhagen Under 2.5 goals at 1.90
Prices correct at time of writing.
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