Nordsjaelland v Brondby & Copenhagen v Odense
Denmark head to their final round of fixtures before the 3 month winter break. This leaves a final opportunity to weed out some value from my 2nd favourite betting league in Europe (2nd only to the magnificent Tippilaegen) before they vanish off to hibernation.
Sunday sees a couple of fixtures with decent angles in, first up at 3pm, Nordsjaelland host Brondby.
Nordsjaelland can’t seem to string together any consistency of late. Just when you think they’re about to turn the corner and kick on, they blow up. Beat Aarhus followed by a loss to OB. Beat Aalborg and lose to Esbjerg. Beat Hobro and flop to Sonderjyske. It’s becoming nigh on impossible to work out which Nordsjaelland side will turn up.
This leaves us with a bit of a quandary as to how to play the market. Brondby are a decent team. Currently in 6th, they were unbeaten in 8 before a fired up Aalborg side secured a brilliant 2-0 win on the road. Nordsjaelland certainly have the capability to beat Brondby but with a team that demonstrates such inconsistency, we have to look at another angle in.
By far the most appealing market in terms of this game is the over 2.5 goals angle. These two teams have totalled an average of 3.75 goals based on their last 4 home / away fixtures, and extended for a full season, brings an expected goals total at around the 2.95 goals mark. Also in 8 away games for Brondby, the lowest total all season is 2 goals, and an average total of 3.87 goals.
I was sure over 2.5 goals would be odds on here but it can still be backed at 2.05. This seems completely bonkers considering neither of these sides look to keep it tight and looks a fantastic way to play the game.
Later on in Denmark at 5pm UK time, OB make the daunting trip to Copenhagen to take on the odds on favourites to land the 2015/16 title.
Copenhagen have hit a mini buffer after blasting all before them so far this season. 2 goalless draws in a row against Viborg and Brondby have allowed the pack to close to within 1 point.
After a decent little run of going unbeaten in 3, I could understand the case being made for OB to get something out the game. They are well organised and will at least bring an attacking threat having only failed to score on the road twice this season.
The problem for OB is that Copenhagen at home are on another level. They have scored first in 17 out of their last 20 games, and haven’t looked close to defeat all season. They have also won 8 of their 9 home games facing middle tier teams.
OB have conceded first on the road in 8 of their last 10 games, including much weaker opposition than they will face on Sunday night and look unlikely to get anything out the game.
In the Copenhagen -1 goal market (Asian) at 1.95, it would be hard to envisage Copenhagen not getting the win here. A 2 goal margin would bag the outright win. This looks the bet to take.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Nordsjaelland vs Brondby over 2.5 goals at 2.05
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Copenhagen -1 at 1.95
Prices correct at time of writing.
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