Nordsjaelland vs Odense & Aalborg v Sonderjyske
An early look into lines for this weekend in Denmark and it is striking how little respect the bookmakers are paying Nordsjaelland in Friday’s teatime kickoff against OB Odense.
Nordsjaelland now sit 5th in the league after an absolutely hideous start to the season has been offset by 3 excellent victories on the spin away at Viborg, champs Midtjylland and most recently a dominant 2-0 win against Aarhus.
As mentioned in last weeks column, new signings into the squad have had an immediate impact and this isn’t the same team that was taking the field 4 weeks ago, either in personnel or confidence.
Even better news for Nordsjaelland is they are facing OB, a team that is horrible on the road. 13 goals conceded in their last 3 away matches, including 4 goals conceded to Esbjerg, one of the weakest teams in the league.
Without a point away from home since July, OB would see getting anything out of this game as a good result. Unfortunately for them, I don’t think they’ll get it.
At odds of 2.1 (-0.5) for Nordsjaelland, this looks a price way out of line to what the true relative strength for this revived team is, and should be backed to continue their good run.
The second previewed game in Denmark this weekend is on Sunday lunchtime as Aalborg host Sonderjyske.
Now only in Denmark could you find a team that has lost 40% of their games and sit 2nd in the table, but that is exactly where Sonderjyske find themselves. Mostly due to their very strange draw stats which for a team that drew 48% of their matches last season, haven’t drew any in 2015 (6W, 0D, 4L)
That aside, Sonderjyske are decent value for their 2nd place sitting, and although most of their wins have come against the weaker teams in the league, they have only faced significant territorial issues against Copenhagen and lost all other games by a single goal.
Aalborg might not be the greatest team in the league but Head Coach Lars Sondergard has made sure they are always good to watch, if not always for the right reasons.
0 clean sheets in 2015 means they have always had to score at least 2 if they want to win, and have managed to on 4 out of 10 occasions this season.
Games involving Aalborg, especially at home, will expect to feature between 15-20% more chances than the league norm. My calculations for the game had the game coming out at around 2.9 expected goals, so for the over 2.5 market sitting at odds of 1.9, this looks nearly half a goal shy.
Back over 2.5 and expect Aalborg to continue to score, and considering the quality Sonderjyske bring, continue to leak.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Nordsjaelland -0.5 at 2.10
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation Aalborg vs Sonderjyske Over 2.5 goals at 1.90
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @ChrisOgle2.
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