Sheffield United v AFC Wimbledon – Bramall Lane at 15:00
Analysing the market’s current perception indicates an implied probability of 65.36% being attached with title challengers Sheffield United. As a result, situating Chris Wilder and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62%. Subsequently, host teams attached with similar implied probabilities have amassed 925 goals from the previous 449 games. Hence, equating to an xG rating of 2.06 to be attached with the Blades. Furthermore, 266 of the previous 449 games (59.24%) that have involved a host team with an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62% has resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, by recycling this data upon the market. An early indication of value becomes evident. The market’s current perception of +2.5 goals is at 52.91% (odds of 1.89). Whereas, the data presented from Sheffield United’s current implied probability indicates an undervalued approach has been established. Analysing Sheffield United’s previous games under similar market conditions, allows an additional viewpoint into how this League One match-up may conclude. As of October 2016; 69.44% v Shrewsbury (2-1), 70.92% v Bury (1-0), 67.56% v Walsall (0-1), 69.44% v Swindon (4-0), 69.44% v Oldham (2-0), 64.51% v Northampton (1-0), 70.92% v Gillingham (2-2) and 66.22% v Fleetwood (0-2). Although these eight games reflect a small size, in comparison to the overall probability of 59.24% being produced by teams priced similarly. An inadequate 37.50% produced three or more goals. Which produces an opportunity, more than a hindrance.
In coordination, the market’s perception of AFC Wimbledon is currently at 13.15%. As a result, situating Neal Ardley and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Subsequently, travelling teams attached with similar implied probabilities have amassed 1141 goals from the previous 1342 games. Hence, equating to an xG rating of 0.85. Furthermore, 740 of the previous 1342 (55.14%) that have involved a travelling team with an implied probability of 24.93% or less has resulted in three or more goals occurring. As a result, of recycling both sets of data. Individually and collectively, value appears clearly evident. Hence, this will be AFC Wimbledon’s lowest implied probability on the road in over three months.
In conclusion, by combining both individual sources of data an overall probability of 57.19% (odds of 1.74) can be attached with three or more goals occurring in this game. Therefore, with the market’s current perception of +2.5 goals at 52.91% an undervalued approach has been implemented. As a result, allowing a clear edge against the market.
Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 1.89
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @gscurftrader.
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