Sheffield Wednesday v Reading – Hillsborough at 19:45
Analysing the market’s current perception of Sheffield Wednesday, indicates an implied probability of 52.91%. As a result, situating Carlos Carvalhal and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%. Subsequently, host teams that have been situated within these parameters have amassed a total of 1257 goals from the previous 731 games. Hence, producing an xG rating in the region of 1.72. In addition, 370 of the previous 731 games (50.62%) has resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, producing an indication that the price attached with the +2.5 goals market should be around 2.00. However, observing the current perception attached with the +2.5 goals market indicates an implied probability of 46.51% (odds of 2.15). As a result, leaving an attractive amount of value to be obtained based upon current data. An important factor when analysing the +2.5 goals market, is the element of both teams scoring. For example; from the 370 games that resulted in +2.5 goals occurring, 288 of those games (77.83%) also resulted in both teams scoring. Hence, by analysing the data extracted from host teams attached with implied probabilities similar to ‘The Owls’ indicates a 51.03% probability of both teams scoring. Somewhat, superior to the market’s current perception and highlighting an additional market in which value can be obtained.
In coordination, with the market’s perception of Sheffield Wednesday. An implied probability of 20.40% becomes evident on Reading. As a result, situating Jaap Stam and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Consequently, travelling teams have amassed a total of 1348 goals from the previous 1562 games. Hence, producing an xG rating in the region of 0.86. Furthermore, 860 of the previous 1562 games (55.06%) has resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, by combining both individual sources of data. The implied probability on +2.5 goals should be in the region of 52.84% (odds of 1.89). However, the market’s current perception has +2.5 goals at 46.51% (odds of 2.15). As a result, producing a tremendous edge against the market. For this reason, I can recommend becoming involved with the +2.5 goals market at the current price. Additional evidence, that produces further indications that three or more goals may occur is that of the xG rating attached to this game; 2.83.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: +2.5 goals at 2.15
Prices correct at time of writing.
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