Sevilla v Celta Vigo – Stadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan at 11:00 live on Sky Sports 3
Those in charge of Spanish football come in for plenty of criticism, the majority of which is overwhelmingly deserved. And those in overseeing fixture scheduling have dropped another clanger this weekend by potentially ruining an attractive and exciting clash between Sevilla and Celta Vigo.
The match will kick-off at midday on Sunday and the heat in Europe’s hottest mainland city is likely to have an adverse effect. The mercury is set to soar into the mid to late 20s, making the going tough for a high-tempo encounter. With that in mind, it may pay to go against the goals with Under 2.5 Goals sticking out at 2.25.
Sevilla have had a troubled start to their La Liga campaign. Unai Emery’s men recording draws with Levante and Malaga, as well as a rare 3-0 home loss to Atletico Madrid but Los Nervionenses were able to put their false start behind them to sweep aside bang-out-form Borussia Monchengladbach 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday.
The hosts will be without goalkeeper Beto and defenders Nico Pareja, Daniel Carrico and Adil Rami again this weekend and with that in mind, it would be no surprise for Sevilla to offer a more cautious approach in a bid to protect their patched up backline. Emery will be aware of Celta’s threats and 10 of Los Nervionenses’ last 13 when welcoming top-half clubs that aren’t Barcelona or Real Madrid have failed to feature three goals or more.
A further nod towards a low-scoring tie can be found in Sevilla’s misfiring offence. With only one goal to their name thus far, the Andalusians have made their worst goalscoring start to a La Liga campaign since 1982 and with eight of their last nine head-to-heads against Celta at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuán delivering Under 2.5 Goals, opposing a goal-hungry game really does start to take shape.
The Vigo visitors have failed to notch more than once in a trip to Seville since 1995 and whilst Los Celestes are unbeaten in eight (W4-D4-L0) top-flight games for the first time since 2002/03, Eduardo Berizzo’s troops have been aided by red cards in each of their three outings this term.
All three of their La Liga fixtures have featured an opposition player receiving their marching orders inside the first 15 minutes with the Galicians playing 155/180 minutes against 10 men.
Last week Celta threw away a 3-1 lead to draw with newly promoted Las Palmas and so whilst the 2-1, 3-0 and 3-3 scorelines don’t exactly suggest an Under 2.5 Goals punt has legs, 14/20 (70%) of Liga road trips under Berizzo’s watch have returned two goals or fewer and that looks a more reliable trend to follow.
Throw in the stifling temperature around the Sanchez Pizjuán as well as the strong stats in our favour and that 2.20 on Under 2.5 Goals looks a real runner.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Total Goals Under 2.5 Goals at 2.20
Prices correct at the time of writing.
By @MarkOHaire
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