Serbia created chances, enough which should of seen them out of sight. However, the lack of conviction offensively produced a nervy end to their opening game against Costa Rica. Although the performance was enough to see off lowly Costa Rica, moving forward Serbia will need to improve their efficiency if they have any aspirations of mixing it in the knockout stage against the world’s elite. Yet another victory will be enough to see Serbia progress and potentially top Group E, which will be looked back upon as a major success.
Switzerland allowed the Brazilian superstars very little room in-which to operate, with Valon Behrami producing an outstanding performance leaving Neymar in a frustrated heap. Although the Swiss sustained heavy pressure towards the end of the game, offensively they did create some significant opportunities sporting an expected goal rating of 1.14.
Serbia v Switzerland
The current perception attached with the ’Match Odds’ market appears to indicate Serbia possess an implied probability of 31.44%, with the weight of the money slightly favouring Switzerland at this time. Furthermore, the current perception attached with Serbia is evident throughout their market history, with a number of occasions in-which the market believed ‘The Eagles’ to possess an implied probability in the region of 31.44%. Encounters against Ukraine, Wales, and Russia all witnessed similarities throughout the ’Match Odds’ market.
How can we benefit from the in-decision within the market?
By analyzing Serbia’s previous encounters and utilizing their historic market data, determining whether any discrepancies exist within the current implied probabilities will be able to be identified.
Ukraine v SerbiaWales v SerbiaSerbia v Russia
The similarities between the markets are noticeable with an early indication that the current implied probability attached with Switzerland in the handicap market may be inadequate. The average implied probability extracted from the -0.0 handicap line indicates an average closing price of 1.72, emphasizing the markets current perception of 1.79 and demonstrating what may be an early indication that there are discrepancies within the market. In addition with previous closing highs of 1.85 and previous closing lows of 1.63, the positives to having Switzerland on side at 1.79 appears obvious.
If by delving deeper into the data records validates the data extracted from Serbia’s previous encounters, we may end up being on the correct side of the market as the scheduled kickoff time approaches.
Therefore by analyzing Switzerland’s market data, the prices extracted will aid our efforts in determining whether the data extracted from Serbia’s previous encounters will withstand the potential negatives.
Romania v SwitzerlandSlovenia v Switzerland Switzerland v Ecuador
The perception throughout each sides historic market data seems to indicate the current implied probability attached with the -0.0 Asian handicap line is inadequate. Utilizing the previous occasions in-which the perception was similar to the one currently lingering over Switzerland, stipulates an average closing price of 1.66 being attached with the -0.0 handicap line. As a result, clearly demonstrating that the current price available is underestimating this Swiss side. Furthermore with the perception of Switzerland currently being flawed the data on the ‘Over/Under’ market appears to identify an additional discrepancy. The average closing price extracted from all six market examples indicates an implied probability of 56.17% being attached with the ‘Over 2.0’ goal line, as a result making somewhat of a mockery of the current probability of 52.63%. Therefore with two fantastic entry points both being identified, it would be unwise not to have them both on side with the potential positives outnumbering any negatives that may occur prior to kickoff.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Switzerland -0.00 at 1.840
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.0 Goals at 1.950
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
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