The Senegalese were tormented by their Japanese counterparts for the entirety of the ninety-six minutes that were allocated and although ‘The Lions of Teranga’ edged certain statistical departments, the expected goal rating found it difficult to separate either side with Japan possessing an xG of 0.90 and the Senegalese possessing an xG rating of 1.00. Yet, Aliou Cisse openly criticized his players after the game with quotes of “Of course there are regrets but we must say we didn’t see a great Senegal team tonight compared to the previous match against Poland,” he continued with “Despite the fact we were leading twice, what is annoying for me is the two goals we conceded,” he added insinuating his players lacked in concentration. “All I know is at this level of competition with the players we have today, who are world-class these were avoidable goals. That is crystal clear.” Stern words from the Senegalese boss who is clearly annoyed, as instead of the prospect of qualification and topping Group H. A loss against Colombia at the Samara Arena, would result in this exciting Senegalese team packing their bags and heading home. Clearly a daunting prospect after their 2-1 victory over Poland. Yet it’s a clear demonstration of how quickly joy can be converted to fear, in such a small amount of time.
Colombia welcomed their first victory of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in-front of hordes of Colombian supporters, at the Kazan Arena. In what was a party-like atmosphere as Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez, and Juan Cuadrado lead a number of outstanding performances. The result amazingly leaves ‘Los Cafeteros’ in a position in-which they can still qualify as top seeds in Group H, an aspect that appeared highly unlikely after their opening game shock against Japan. However, that defeat is clearly behind them as the Colombians posted an xG rating of 1.86, while converting 75.00% of their shots on target to goals. An impressive return which will be pivotal in today’s monumental clash with Senegal, as Colombia are currently only averaging eleven touches within their oppositions eighteen yard box per game, similar with the likes of South Korea (11.19), Iceland (11.54) and Poland (11.08). Yet Jose Peckerman’s post-match words were to echo support and dedicate their win to Carlos Sanchez, who was the target of a death threat after receiving a red card in only the third minute against Japan in their opening game of the tournament. “This victory is dedicated to Carlos Sanchez, because he has had a very hard time these last few days,” Peckerman said “We achieved this victory and I wanted to share it with him. I’m expressing it personally but it’s something that the whole squad feels.
Senegal v Colombia
The markets current perception of Senegal is evident throughout their historic market data, with encounters against Egypt, Ivory Coast and Morocco possessing similar implied probabilities within the ‘Match Odds’ market and with Senegal only needing a point to qualify, the price currently attached with the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line appears attractive.
So what benefits are there to having the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line on-side?
By analyzing Senegal’s previous encounters against the likes of Egypt, Ivory Coast and Morocco determining the closing price for the higher frequency markets should prove to be a fairly efficient task.
Egypt v Senegal
Senegal v Ivory Coast
Morocco v Senegal
The markets current perception of the Senegalese possesses striking similarities to the closing prices displayed when they met Egypt. ‘The Lions of Teranga’ closed with a price of 4.40, which equates to an implied probability of 22.72% in the ‘Match Odds’ market. In correlation, the Asian handicap market was set with lines of-0.5/+0.5. Which appears evident again today and similar to the ‘Match Odds’ market, the implied probabilities attached with the handicap lines are again evident. However the discrepancies within the ‘Over/Under’ market are apparent with the weight of the money currently situated on the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line, current prices are insinuating an implied probability of 54.94% which based upon previous market data suggests to be inadequate.
Is the markets current perception of the ‘Over/Under’ department distorted due to Senegal’s recent encounter with Japan?
By analyzing Colombia’s historic market data and utilizing their previous encounters, determining whether the market’s perception of the ‘Over/Under’ market is inadequate should be easy to identify.
Colombia v Japan
Colombia v Chile
Colombia v Paraguay
Observing the three market examples extracted from Colombia’s previous encounters, indicates that the weight of the money within the ‘Over/Under’ market has been happily situated on the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line. The three game average implied probability produced a closing price in the region of 1.62, with highs of 1.78 and lows of 1.54. As a result, indicating a significant discrepancy with the price currently on offer. However, by broadening the range of games from three to six and including Senegal’s previous market behaviour, the data extracted will establish a more efficient price. Therefore with prices ranging between 1.54 and 1.99, the average implied probability extracted from both sets of data indicates a price in the region of 1.65. Consequently, with the market current offering 1.82 and the motivation surrounding both sides, it would be unwise to bet against the market data that is suggesting that the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line will be the correct side of the market.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.50 goals at 1.840
Preview by: @gscurftrader.