October 30, 2016

Stoke V Swansea Asian Handicap Preview – Monday 31st October by @DarkDyson

Stoke V Swansea – Britanna Stadium at 20:00 live on Sky Sports 1

The games come think and fast around this time of year, which is great for Asian Handicap professionals.

The simple fact of low margin pricing, always around even money means that volatility can be kept in check.

Of course that only works if you are staking sensibly and consistently betting on perceived value selections.

As I write this I do not know the results of my two Sunday recommendations. But I have had some winners recently, so let’s hope my good form continues here!

Stoke battling back…

Mark Hughes was heading up the ‘Next Manager to be Sacked’ market during the opening weeks of the season.

Four straight defeats to open their 2016/17 campaign, must have had the club a little worried. But again we saw an example of good management, when Hughes installed a dramatic change to the team.

Diminutive defensive midfielder Joe Allen scored an equalising goal at home against West Brom at the start of the month.

Hughes saw something in Allen that no previous manager saw, because he promptly moved him to the number 10 role!

The combative midfielder went on to score three goals in the next two games. Although the opposition was not great, bar Manchester United, confidence is returning to the Potters changing room.

The kind run of fixtures continues for Hughes’s team, as they face West Ham, Bournemouth, Watford & Burnley in November.

Things will really start to look good for Stoke, if misfiring striker Wilfred Bony can back on form during this relatively soft run of games.

Swansea City USA…

Welsh club Swansea became the first Premier League club to appoint an American manager. When Bob Bradley took over from Francesco Guidolin, earlier this month.

There was a certain amount of controversy around his appointment when the Swansea Supporters Trust, which owns 21% of the club, stated that they had not been consulted about his appointment.

It’s too late now and they just have to hope the ‘Boss’ finds a way to turn Swansea’s season around.

He has a very tough job on his hands, they have not won since the opening weekend and picked up just two points since.

However, in his two games in charge there has been some improvements. Two goals at the Emirates were not enough to secure a shock away point, but were encouraging none the less.

Then last weekend at home against Watford, he picked up his first point as a manager in the Premier League.

Can Swansea build on these two performances and get back to winning ways on the road against Stoke?

Stats, data and prices…

Again I am looking at the markets nice and early for this Monday night game, looking to spot some value!

Currently the home team are chalked up as 2.08 favourites to win and the visitors are at 3.85.

These prices represent a 48.07% chance to win for Stoke and a 25.97% chance of Swansea winning.

At first glance, there is value available in backing the away team. But, let’s take a look at the data as well.

Based on a range of 2.0 to 2.2 for home teams, there have been 110 matches over three years.

As you might expect from these weaker home favourites, only 44 (40%) of them overcame their opponents.

Immediately, you can see this win percentage is out of line with Stoke’s win probability of 48.07% for this match.

A similar number of games (42 or 38.18%) ended with Over 2.5 Goals, these games had an average Overs price of 2.04.

Over 2.5 Goals in this match are currently priced at 1.92, which conversely makes the Under 2.5 Goals line of interest.

Stoke’s recent history in this price range sees them with a record of P14 W9 D1 L4. In these games they have scored just 17 times but conceded only 10, which is encouraging for Under 2.5 Goals.

Swansea’s data needed a larger range here so, I increased it 2.0 to 2.5 to include 11 games from the past three years.

Their record over these matches is, as expected, not great at W2 D2 L7 and they scored 12, while conceding 22.

With an average of 3.09 goals per game, that is not so good for my thoughts on the Under 2.5 market. Yet, the average price for Under 2.5 here was just 1.73 and we can back this at odds against this weekend.

Asian Handicap & Total Goals…

The main Asian Handicap line in this one is set at +/-0.5, hosts Stoke priced at 2.07, which leaves the value on Swansea at 1.88.

As mentioned the Asian Total Goals market is of more interest to me for Monday night. Based on the data and model price, Under 2.5 Goals is an attractive option to back.

Swansea could sneak a point at the Britannia, but I think it is unlikely and there is not enough value in their price anyway.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals at 2.09

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson, all stats taken from his data sheets.

Eastbridge Soccer Betting Broker, Asian Handicap specialists.

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