Aalesund v Stromsgodset
Despite facing a team who haven’t won in 37 Tippeligaen games, Aalesund still kicked off as a +0.25 underdog on the Азиатский гандикап line. The hosts obtained a massive three points last week by beating Start 4-1 away from home.
Once again, they are in a similar position here and maybe will relish being underdogs. Let’s make absolutely no mistake though, AFK are still in massive trouble. They remain inside the relegation zone, although last week’s win might act as a springboard.
Aalesund have been highly inconsistent this year and rarely seem to string together a good sequence of results. Their home record is ok, but you never know what you’re going to get with them.
The Godset winless run has now been extended to seven games. As a result, they are now as low as seventh in the table and their season is in huge danger of fizzling out. There were however, some signs of potential recovery last week. They drew against Valerenga away from home, but arguably should’ve beaten them. That was a pretty good effort against one of the big form teams in this league.
Maybe the players just gave a bit extra because it was a local derby, but if they could maintain that sort of standard here, then they’d actually have a good chance of victory. Godset have struggled to gel offensively in the second half of the season but on paper they still have some dangerous weapons, like Marcus Pedersen.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Godset have the second worst away record in the entire Tippeligaen. They’ve lost a whopping 7 out of 11 road games, yet somehow are priced up as a -0.25 asian handicap favourite!
That just shows you how little the bookies rate Aalesund, although there’s no doubt that the visitors still possess a strong, albeit false reputation. Right now they aren’t one of the power teams in Norway, but that could potentially change again.
I have a feeling we will see them fire again in the foreseeable future, maybe even in this game. The pick I like is over 2.75 goals. Aalesund rarely convince me at the back and this could be a chance for the visitors to finally net a few again. A huge 7 of the last 8 Godset games have ended under 2.5, but this doesn’t concern me. That streak will end soon and I predict this will be the fixture in which it occurs.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.87
Rosenborg v Start
The champions continued their march towards yet another crown by beating Stabaek 2-0 last week. They left it late but totally deserved their success, dominating the contest. A win here combined with an Odd defeat could potentially secure them the title unofficially.
Rosenborg have been superb at home all season, winning 11/11 contests, scoring 34 and conceding just 7 goals in the process, which are remarkable stats. The Trondheim club may well have an eye on the upcoming midweek cup quarter final against Tromso, so might field a weakened team here.
However, even a second string Rosenborg should easily beat Start. RBK are on a massive -2.75 asian handicap, which is by far the biggest seen this season in the Tippeligaen.
It’s now 38 games and counting for Start since they last won a Tippeligaen game. If they managed to end that run here then it would be one of the biggest shocks ever seen in this league.
They are as big as 28/1 to pick up all three points, but they might as well be 28,000-1 because there’s no way in hell they are even going to go close here! Having said that, this will be like a cup final for Start. They have little left to play for now this season apart from pride and of course to try and end their horrible winless streak.
I’m sure the players will be giving it absolutely everything and throw the kitchen sink at RBK. They performed ok against the champions earlier in the season, only losing 0-2 thanks to a couple of late goals. It’d be a surprise if they got close here but they should at least try hard.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Rosenborg will win the game, the question is by how many? The hosts are in between a -2.5 and -2.75 handicap which means they need to win by at least three clear goals for you to win, should you back them to prevail.
This has every chance of covering, the hosts could run riot if they are in the mood. However, my preferred bet is over 3.5 goals. Maybe there’s half a chance Rosenborg could get slack, after all they did against Lillestrom not so long ago. Maybe towards the end they’ll let their guard down and gift Start a consolation goal.
I don’t actually think the visitors will score in all likelihood, but when comparing the two potential bets it’s the over I prefer because there is more than one team that could potentially contribute. I would say 4-0 or 5-0 is the most probable outcome and it’s just a question of how ruthless Rosenborg want to be.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals at 1.77
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