Rosenborg v Bodo/Glimt & Tromso v Viking
Week 27 in Norway sees two games on Sunday evening with a great punting angle in. First up is the Scandinavian superpower Rosenborg, as they host mid table Bodo/Glimt at 5pm UK time.
It doesn’t take a genius to work out that Rosenborg with 33 points from 13 home games this season should be looking to see off the modest abilities of Bodo/Glimt, but at 1.30 for the win, you aren’t going to get rich backing them. However due to the goals expectation in the Norwegian league which is higher than most of the rest of Europe, plus a vast differential in playing styles for Rosenborg for home and away respectively, this is creating some juicy value in the under/over 3.5 market.
Taking a view of data since the season began, Rosenborg average nearly 2.5 goals scored per game. Including the goals they let in, we are looking at an average of around 3.25 goals total per game involving Rosenborg, which is fairly standard for the Norwegian league.
The interest comes when stripping out the contrasting fortunes of home and away data for Rosenborg, plus eliminating a couple of data spikes from the spring.
Since the end of May, Rosenborg have hosted on eight separate occasions with only one of those games going over 3.5 goals. In their last 4 home outings, including 2 against teams of very similar make-ups to Bodo, the final scores have been 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0.
Although Bodo/Glimt have a great record for getting on the score sheet, whether winning or losing, my calculations for the game, even taking that into account, saw the expected goals total coming in around the 2.7 mark.
With under 3.5 goals being available at odds of 2.00, this look fantastic value and should be backed with confidence.
In the late kick off (8pm UK time), Tromso who are without a win in 10 games, host European challengers Viking.
Often in football, results don’t always tell the true story of a team’s run of good or bad form and aren’t always a great indication of how much possession or attempts a team is having. In the case of Tromso however, without a win in 10 is exactly what they deserve.
In all but two of those matches, they have been out possessed and only 1 had the better of the attempts. Their capitulation last week to Molde in a 4-0 walkover was the strongest sign yet that Tromso are hurtling towards crisis mode. Their gritty 1-1 draw to Rosenborg was full on backs to the wall stuff and could have easily been a 3-1 or 4-1 defeat. The good news for Tromso is there is some huge weakness at the foot of the Tippilaegen which might just save them.
Their opponents Viking are a solid yardstick. With 7 of their 12 away games resulting in a win and two players returning from injury, it would make sense for Viking to be hovering towards the even money mark despite being away from home.
Those generous bookies are offering 2.90 for an away win, and with 0 draws on the road for Viking, take them in the -0.5 market and don’t bother with the draw insurance.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Rosenborg v Bodo/Glimt, Under 3.5 goals at 2.00
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Viking -0.5 at 2.90
Prices correct at the time of writing.
По @ ChrisOgle2
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