ATP Paris – 2nd Round – Edouard Roger-Vasselin vs Tomas Berdych
ATP Masters 1000 in Paris is the traditional final main tournament of the 2015 ATP season finishes second round matches this afternoon, and today’s handicap betting recommendation is in the French capital at around 2pm UK time, when home favourite Edouard Roger-Vasselin takes on Tomas Berdych.
Roger-Vasselin’s career has somewhat fallen off a cliff in the last 12 months, and his statistics during this period can only be described as woeful. The Frenchman has an extreme tendency to give leads up, losing the first break lead in over 70% of sets, and he is 6-12 at ATP level in this time period. Should he get into a leading position today, there is a high probability that he will fail to see out the lead.
Incredibly, this win/loss record actually flatters Roger-Vasselin, with his stats showing that he has held serve on 71.8% of occasions and broken opponents 16.4% (combined 88.2%), across all surfaces. These stats are well below ATP average on both counts.
On hard or indoor hard courts, as today, Roger-Vasselin’s stats barely improve. In the same time period he has held 74.7% and broken 14.1% (combined 88.8%). This data translates him to be barely better than the average Challenger player on the surface.
Opponent Berdych’s season has been quite standard for the Czech player. As usual, he tends to fail to beat elite level opponents but has little issue dispatching of opponents worse than him. On hard/indoor hard in the last 12 months, Berdych has held serve 85.1% and broken opponents 28.2% (combined 113.3%) and clearly this translates to him being of a significantly higher level than Roger-Vasselin in this match-up.
This high ability differential equated to a model price of 1.10 about Berdych, representing value on market prices around the 1.20 mark.
In the last 12 months on hard/indoor hard, priced under 1.20, Berdych’s victories have generally come in facile fashion. In matches which have gone to three sets, one set has frequently been won by a dominant margin, and all of his 14 wins have come via at least three games, and 13 wins by at least a four game margin. With 13/17 clearing this line, this would imply odds of 1.31.
Considering the pre-match value on Berdych, and this handicap clearing tendency, the 1.61 about Berdych giving up a four game start looks a solid proposition, and is today’s recommendation.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Tomas Berdych -4 games at 1.61Prices correct at time of writing.
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