ATP 250 Geneva – Second Round – Stan Wawrinka vs Lukas Rosol
With the French Open starting on Sunday, this week’s events are the final chance for players to fine-tune their preparations in a match environment, and one match in particular gives us a very solid handicap betting recommendation today.
Stan Wawrinka is fancied by some (not me) to make a big impact at Roland Garros, and after receiving a first round bye, he faces a tricky opener against Lukas Rosol in today’s second round encounter in the inaugural ATP Geneva event.
As mentioned last week, Wawrinka has gone through some personal issues lately, although he made the semi-finals of Rome, where he was despatched by fellow countryman Roger Federer in facile fashion.
Overall, the Swiss player doesn’t hugely impress statistically. In the last 12 months, he’s won 6/11 on clay, holding 74.2% and breaking 24.8%, which is a very mediocre record indeed. Going back further, in the last 24 months, this improves to 16 wins from 24 matches, holding 82.3% and breaking 23.2%, but even this is far from elite level stats.
In addition to this, he has an awful record in his native Switzerland, winning 32 of his last 50, returning almost -34% ROI from Pinnacle closing prices. On clay in Switzerland since 2010, he’s won just two from six matches, and has been defeated by Feliciano Lopez, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Mardy Fish and Marcel Granollers (in all matches he was priced 1.50 or below).
Clay is arguably Rosol’s best surface, and the Czech has accumulated a solid 15-11 record in the last 12 months on the dirt, holding 76.6% and breaking 20.9%. Whilst this makes him a justifiable underdog today, it makes a mockery of the 1.19 currently available on Wawrinka, and my model made Wawrinka 1.35, with Rosol at 3.86.
Further assessment of Wawrinka’s record on clay gives us a viable opportunity to oppose him on the game handicap.
When priced between 1.10 and 1.40, the world number nine has not won a best of three sets match by more than 5 games since May 2013, where he got the better of Santiago Giraldo 6-3 6-3 in Madrid. After this match, he failed to cover this line eight consecutive times, with 6 losses and 2 pushes. In 2013 prior to this win over Giraldo, he was 6-2-6 for this handicap line on clay, so overall since 2013 Wawrinka is 7-4-12 for covering this line.
With the implied historical odds on Rosol covering this line being 1.58, this looks a very appealing proposition, especially considering the poor record Wawrinka has in his home country.
Recommendation: Back Lukas Rosol +5 games at 1.85
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