ATP Montreal – 2nd Round – Marin Cilic vs Bernard Tomic
US Open Warm-up events continue apace and this week sees the first of two consecutive Masters 1000 tournaments on the schedule as players look to fine-tune their preparation for the final Grand Slam of 2015, and it is in Montreal where we find today’s handicap betting opportunity at around 7pm UK time tonight.
Last year’s US Open champion Marin Cilic will be looking for a strong performance in New York in around a month’s time, with 2,000 ranking points to defend, and it’s worth noting that if he fails to defend those points, he will drop to around 20th in the world from a current ninth.
This level is very similar to the level of his recent statistics, with the Croat amassing merely a solid 18-10 (64%) record in 2015, holding 84.6% and breaking 16.0% across all surfaces in those 28 matches. These stats are nowhere near top 10 level and would suit a player ranked around 20 much more appropriately.
Ironically, today’s opponent Bernard Tomic is ranked around that area, at a current 25, and despite off-court problems has had a solid season himself, with a very similar 62% win rate (29-18). In these matches the Australian has held 85.0% and broken opponents 20.3%.
This year on his favoured hard courts, Tomic has particularly excelled, winning 21 of 28 matches, holding 86.8% and breaking 21.8%, and this 108.6% combined percentage isn’t too far from top 10 level. Admittedly the calibre of his opponents is not of the ilk of Cilic’s, which is why my model priced Cilic as the 1.73 favourite, but this still makes a mockery of the 1.45 currently available about the world number nine.
Clearly Cilic is no value at all, and this has been the case for the majority of the time since he triumped at the US Open last year, returning -15% ROI in matches after last year’s US Open based on Pinnacle Sports closing prices.
Both players are statistically stronger on serve than return, so a close match is anticipated, and given that Cilic has been too short in the last year or so, and my model pricing based on the hold/break stats, backing Tomic to claim at least a set seems a very viable proposition at 1.70.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Bernard Tomic +1.5 sets at 1.70
Prices correct at time of writing.
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