ATP Montreal – 3rd Round – Gilles Muller vs Andy Murray
After yesterday’s resounding success recommending Bernard Tomic on the set handicap against Marin Cilic – the Australian claimed a straight-sets win – we are back in Montreal this evening for another handicap betting opportunity in this week’s ATP Masters 1000 event.
Andy Murray eventually got the better of Tommy Robredo in his rain-interrupted first round match last night and this evening at around 730pm UK time takes on Gilles Muller for a place in the last eight. Muller impressively dispatched Gael Monfils in a final set tie-break, recovering from a mini-break down.
At this point it is worth mentioning Muller’s exceptional tie-break success, with the man from Luxembourg claiming 25/39 tiebreaks (64%) in the last 12 months, which is better than Murray’s 14-10 (58%) record. If a set in this match ends in a tie-break, Muller should have a slight edge.
Murray, who was humbled by Teymuraz Gabashvili last week in Washington, has had a hectic schedule with a three-match heroic display in the Davis Cup recently, as well as announcing that he will become a father. His focus may not be 100% currently, and against an opponent that will give his all, Muller will be dangerous.
This is illustrated by his head to head record against Muller, where he has dropped sets in two of the four matches they have played (2/3 in best of three set matches), and in best of three set matches on hard court where Murray is a favourite priced below 1.20 this year, he dropped at least set in 5/13 matches (38.5%).
Against my list of big servers across all surfaces, Murray has dropped at least a set on four of ten (40%) occasions since the start of 2014, so with both stats showing Murray to be around 40% historically to lose a set in this type of match-up, this implies odds of 2.50, making the market 2.80 some value.
Considering Muller also has the extra boost from having a strong tie-break record, and the doubts about Murray’s focus, this gives value about the 2.80 available even more credence and I like the chances of Muller to claim at least a set today at odds-against.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Gilles Muller +1.5 sets at 2.80
Price correct at time of writing.
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