Parma v Frosinone – Ennio Tardini at 14:00
Parma are back on the up in Italian football after the doom and gloom of bankruptcy and near extinction over the past 15 years. After their second rebirth in the space of a decade, one of the continent’s most recognized clubs achieved a third successive promotion and a romantic return to Serie A for this season.
Led by Roberto D’Aversa, the Gialloblu have made a positive start to life back in the top-flight. The Crociati are nestled comfortably in to mid-table having returned W4-D1-L5 from their opening 10 tussles, including an eye-catching triumph against Inter Milan and spirited effort against Juventus.
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However, heavy back-to-back defeats against Lazio and Atalanta have stalled progress and Parma will be looking at Sunday’s match-up with fellow newly-promoted club Frosinone at their Stadio Ennio Tardini as a great chance to get back on track in Serie A.
Frosinone finding their feet
A controversial refereeing decision in their promotion play-off with Palermo aided Frosinone in returning to Serie A for the first time in four years, and there’s little reason to think they won’t be in for a devilishly difficult relegation scrap after the Canarini’s start saw them pick up one point from their first 10 games.
Last season, Moreno Longo’s men were built upon a reasonably defensive structure, as they conceded just 47 goals across their 42 games. That was due in part to the performances 23-year-old defender Luka Kranjc, as 65% of their away days featured fewer than three goals.
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However, the Canarini’s attempted approach to life in the top-tier was to rinse and repeat and Frosinone’s defense has quickly been found out. The visitors shipped 16 goals in their opening six matches, failing to score in each and so something had to be done to rectify the situation.
High-scoring encounter on the cards?
Credit to Longo, who’s adapted the system from 5-3-2 to a 3-4-3 and Frosinone have been reaping the rewards. Sure, they’re still hemorrhaging goals – but they’re also now scoring plenty, notching nine in their past four fixtures since the formation was switched.
Last time out, Frosinone romped to a 3-0 victory at SPAL and, like Parma, they’ll be targeting three points on Sunday night. So I’m hopeful the two newcomers will engage in a relatively open and exciting showdown and therefore I’m happy to support Over 2.5 Goals at an odds-against price of 2.03.
Collectively, the duo have seen 12/20 (60%) Serie A games feature three or more goals this season with a goals-per-game average standing at 2.85. The pair also combines for a very strong 3.22 Expected Goals average per-game, suggesting we could be in for a high-scoring duel.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 2.030
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.