Bournemouth v Southampton – Dean Court at 13:30 live on Sky Sports 1
For my second Asian Handicap preview of the weekend, I will be focusing on the South coast derby between Bournemouth and Southampton. Only goal difference separates the two sides in the league after 16 games and we should be in for a close match.
In terms of results, the Cherries have struggled with consistency this season. They haven’t registered back to back wins this term but have more victories (6) than their opponents (5).
76% of their points have been earned at home and having beaten Leicester at Dean Court last time out, this could be their best opportunity so far to string two wins together and leapfrog the Saints.
Bournemouth are the better attacking side, averaging 1.88 goals per game at home compared to Southampton’s 0.75 on the road. However, defensively they are more vulnerable, conceding 1.13 goals per game on home soil this season.
When conceding, 11 times in 16 matches, Eddie Howe’s side have only managed to win twice, but all of their defeats have come when conceding two or more. Something the Saints have only managed to do twice in the Premier League this campaign and not once in their last 8 outings.
Their record against teams outside the top 6 is strong, winning 4 and losing just once. Confidence should be high.
It hasn’t been the most exciting of season’s so far for Saints fans. It took them a little while to get going and when they did, they stuttered again.
The biggest concern for Southampton is their lack of goals (14), only Middlesbrough (13) have scored fewer this season. Now factor in the absence of Charlie Austin, who have scored 6 of their league goals this term, and they could struggle even more.
The Saints are generally a tough side to beat though, losing fewer (5) than their opponents Bournemouth (7). And despite their attacking problems, against teams outside the top 6, they have won 5 and lost just twice in 11 games.
Their defence is their biggest strength, keeping 4 clean sheets in their last 5 league games but their 3-0 reverse against Palace at the beginning of December shows they can be broken down.
With their strong home record I think Bournemouth have been underestimated here at 3.02. They are up against a strong defence but are by far the better side going forward. They also shouldn’t be too concerned about Southampton’s attacking threat.
This should be a very tight match but I expect the Cherries to create more opportunities. If they score, I think they win and they offer some real value +/- 0 (Draw No Bet) on the Asian Handicap market.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Bournemouth +/- 0 (Draw No Bet) at 2.10
Prices correct at time of writing.
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