Stromsgodset v Odd
Stromsgodset preview
Godset have endured a horrible run in the Tippeligaen. The Drammen outfit have failed to win any of their last eight games. Last week things really nosedived when they got hammered 4-2 at Aalesund. However, Godset should head into this match in better spirits. They reached the semi finals of the NM Cup midweek by beating Valerenga 2-0. With a good end to the season they could still potentially finish in a medal position. But realistically the fire has been extinguished from their Tippeligaen campaign. Their best chance of success and European qualification lies in the cup. Perhaps that might clear their minds a bit and they can play with more freedom and open up. Left back Mounir Hamoud is suspended.
Odd preview
Odd have been really poor since the summer break, winning just two of their last nine games. Even those victories have to be taken with a pinch of salt because they were only facing lowly Start and Lillestrom. Remarkably, they are still in a medal position and a strong end to the season would likely see them finish as runners-up. But they need to snap out of this funk which has been going on for quite some time. It’s difficult to know exactly what the problem has been, they seem to have issues in all areas of the field. The defence has become less reliable, the midfield not as penetrating and the attack force goal shy at crucial moments.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Both of these teams are out of form in the league and desperately need a win here. I think Godset will have a big weight lifted off their shoulders thanks to their cup quarter final win and should approach the match positively. This is quite a high profile clash between two of the bigger and better teams in Norway. Hopefully it’ll be exciting with chances at both ends.
I’m not sure who’s going to win and the bookies agree. Godset are favourites on a DNB asian handicap, or for those feeling braver you could take them on a -0.25 handicap. I’m not going to take anything in this market because I genuinely see this as a real toss up, it’s a question of who takes their chances best. The overs do interest me though, especially as the line is set at 2.75 with generous odds. I just feel both will really go for it here and it could be a more open game than some expect. Therefore, I’m happy to pull the trigger on this pick and I think there’ll be at least three goals scored.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.90
Valerenga v Aalesund
Valerenga preview
The Oslo outfit are unbeaten in nine league games but suffered major disappointment in the midweek NM Cup, losing against Godset 2-0. The way that ‘Enga had been playing recently they’d have had high hopes of winning that competition, or at least progressing to the semi finals. Now their sole focus is on survival and right now they have a six point cushion to third bottom. Valerenga shouldn’t go down but they still need a few more points to guarantee their Tippeligaen status before ex Celtic boss Ronny Deila takes over as manager in 2017. They might be nine games unbeaten but there have been some warning signs recently that their good form might end. Draws facing Godset and Haugesund were obtained when they were second best, and they’ve now followed that up with the aforementioned cup defeat.
Aalesund preview
Back to back thumping wins have moved Aalesund out of the relegation zone. 4-1 and 4-2 victories against Start & Godset respectively seem to have ignited their change towards survival. This will be a more challenging game for AFK but it’s been really noticeable how much better their offense has looked of late. It’s a well known fact that their backline isn’t good enough to get them points. Therefore, they are going to have to rely on their attackers to get the job done. The good news is that it’s scored eight goals in two games and brimming with confidence. Aalesund have lost a massive 8 out of 12 times on the road this season but have won 2 of their last 3, so in this instance we have to forget about the overall statistics. Captain and right back/ midfielder Bjorn Helge Riise is suspended for this clash.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Valerenga are favourites on a -1 asian handicap here which is simply too short. They are unbeaten in nine games but signs are that this good form could be coming to an end. Coupled with Aalesund’s recent resurgence, then I think it’d be dangerous and no real value backing the hosts on a -1 line. I’m not saying that Aalesund will definitely get a result, but sometimes it’s best to play safe.
Instead, I’m going to side with the overs. Valerenga have been involved in some really annoying games that have ended 1-1 recently. All of them should have ended over, but somehow remained all squad. However, it’s clear with the nature of their play that an open style of football is to be expected. It’s also clear that the visitors are going to be relying on their offense to get the job done for the remainder of this season. Over 3 goals looks like a good pick in this instance. At worst, a push is highly probably, but I think this match could erupt into an explosion of goals.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 3 goals at 1.87
Prices correct at time of writing.
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