ATP Winston Salem – 3rd Round – Teymuraz Gabashvili vs Malek Jaziri
The ATP 250 at Winston Salem is the final hard court warm-up event for the US Open, and today’s third round sees us at the third round stage. This evening’s action affords us a nice handicap betting opportunity in the shape of journeyman Malek Jaziri, who takes on Teymuraz Gabashvili at around 930pm UK time tonight.
I’m absolutely shocked by the odds on this match – there are some prices which leave me scratching my head wondering if I’ve missed something and this match falls into that category. Gabashvili is a solid clay courter, but his record is much worse on hard court, and this price would be much more appropriately suited to a clash on the dirt.
In ATP main draw action, Gabashvili has won just 6/17 matches in the last 12 months on hard court, with Jaziri’s 9/19 record much better than the Georgian’s. In these matches, Gabashvili has held serve 77.0% and broken opponents 16.3% (combined 93.3%), worse than Jaziri’s 77.0% and 21.8% respectively (combined 98.8%).
Looking at 2015 in isolation, Jaziri still has the better 7-9 record to Gabashvili’s 4-7, with Gabashvili holding serve 78.1% and breaking 15.1% (combined 93.2%) and Jaziri doing so 76.5% and 20.9% (combined 97.4%).
These statistics clearly indicate that Jaziri is the better player over both the last 12 months and in 2015, and he also has a combined 3.0% edge on all-time statistics, with a better 43% win rate to Gabashvili’s 35%. Clearly these bear no resemblance to the current 1.40 about Gabashvili to win today.
This same 1.40 price was almost identical to Viktor Troicki’s price against Jaziri in the last round, and it’s difficult to argue that Gabashvili is at the same level on hard courts to the Serbian, even with Troicki being in a bad run of form.
To give further examples of price comparison, Gabashvili was priced at around 1.40 on hard court against Aslan Karatsev and James McGee this year – mere Challenger journeymen that Jaziri would be strong favourite against.
When priced between 1.20 and 1.49 on hard court since January 2014, Gabashvili lost at least a set in 4 from 7 occasions, whilst Jaziri, when priced between 3.00 and 5.99 was a warrior, claiming at least a set 10/15 times in the same time period.
These historical statistics make further mockery of the 1.87 about the Tunisian to win at least one set this evening, and this is today’s recommendation.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Malek Jaziri +1.5 sets at 1.87
Price correct at time of writing.
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