ATP Cincinnati – 2nd Round – Borna Coric vs Stan Wawrinka
The second consecutive ATP Masters 1000 event got underway in Cincinnati on Sunday evening, and today’s second round sees a number of young prospects taking on more seasoned adversaries in this evening’s matches, and it is one of these that gives us today’s handicap betting opportunity.
Borna Coric, Jared Donaldson and Thanasi Kokkinakis all look enticingly priced as heavy underdogs today against Stan Wawrinka, Jerzy Janowicz and Richard Gasquet respectively and the three teenagers, all of whom have high potential, are under-rated by the bookmakers according to my model.
However, I want to focus on Coric’s match with Wawrinka for this preview, in a match which starts at 4pm UK time, and yet again I will be opposing the Swiss world number five tonight.
Wawrinka starts as a heavy favourite, at around 1.28, which is a surprise given the fact that he retired six days ago in Montreal with a lower back injury. These doubts are compounded by his surely questionable mental state after Kyrgios’ infamous sledging in that match and I’m shocked he is this short with these issues against the richly talented 18 year old Coric, who has shown that he is not fazed at all against top ten opponents, with wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray already. My model priced Wawrinka at a more realistic 1.41.
In completed best of three set matches on hard/indoor hard since January 2014, Wawrinka is a very poor 10-7 when priced between 1.20 and 1.49, showing that he is vulnerable when a strong favourite on these surfaces. Only two of those wins came via a 2-1 scoreline however, so he has won 8/17 in straight sets.
Coric doesn’t have a huge sample size for best of three set matches as a heavy underdog priced between 3.00 and 5.99 on hard/indoor hard in his ATP career, but does boast wins over Ernests Gulbis and Marcos Baghdatis (via a late retirement) from six outings, and claimed sets against Gilles Simon and David Goffin as well.
The Croatian has taken at least a set in 4/6 of these match-ups.
Overall, combining the two player’s historical price range handicap tendencies, I calculate the implied odds of Coric claiming at least a set to be 1.77, making the 2.30 currently available strong value, and this is today’s recommendation.
Recommendation: Back Borna Coric +1.5 sets at 2.30
Price correct at time of writing.
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