ATP Stuttgart – Second Round – Jerzy Janowicz vs Philipp Kohlschreiber
The grass season started on Monday and today’s preview takes us to the new tournament in Stuttgart, where home favourite Philipp Kohlschreiber takes on Jerzy Janowicz, in what promises to be a clash of the big-servers at around 3pm UK time this afternoon.
Kohlschreiber starts at around 1.30 for this match which, despite the German’s strong grass record, seems very short given that Janowicz is also very proficient on grass.
Statistically there isn’t a great deal to separate the duo on the surface in the last two years – Janowicz actually has the marginally better 8-4 win-loss record, with Kohlschreiber marginally behind at 7-5.
In these matches, Kohlschreiber has managed to hold serve slightly more, doing so 88.1% to Janowicz’s 87.0%, and also just about getting the better of the return stats, breaking 19.4% to the Pole’s 18.3%.
However, these marginal differences far from justify such a short market price on Kohlschreiber, especially considering both players have an identical 12 month tiebreak record of 12-13. Given the extra pace of grass, tiebreaks are more likely than any other surface, and with Janowicz having a slight 53% (26-23) to 48% (25-27) edge on these in the last two years, a tiebreak set win for him would not be a surprise at all.
Giving further weight to today’s recommendation is Janowicz’s 100% record of winning at least a set in all of the seven matches he has started as underdog on grass (three outright match wins), including defeats of Ernests Gulbis and Lleyton Hewitt in recent years, two five set defeats against Florian Mayer and Tommy Robredo at Wimbledon, and taking the first set against Andy Murray at Wimbledon in 2013.
All things considered, evidence points to Janowicz being more than capable of winning at least a set, and a shade of odds on represents an attractive price.
Recommendation: Back Jerzy Janowicz +1.5 sets at 1.96
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