WTA Katowice – Final – Camila Giorgi vs Dominika Cibulkova
Last week’s successful back of Michael Berrer on the game handicap took this season’s handicap betting recommendations to 11-2-2, and today we move to the WTA in an attempt to get our 12th win of a very successful season already.
Camila Giorgi has impressed in Katowice this week and this should be of no surprise to any regular observer of women’s tennis. The Italian – much better indoors than on any other surface – has reached the final of this event now in three consecutive seasons. However, defeats to Alize Cornet and Anna Schmiedlova in 2014 and 2015 mean that she has still to claim a title in Poland.
Today she takes on Dominika Cibulkova with the Slovak still looking to get back to the form that saw her break the top 10 around two years ago. We’ve seen fleeting glimpses of this, with a semi-final in Hobart and a final in Acapulco to show for her efforts this year, but on the whole she’s been quite over-rated by the market.
My model again recommended opposition of Cibulkova, indicating value on Giorgi, whose record indoors is superb. In the last 18 months on Indoor Hard, she boasts a 15-5 record, holding 74.7% and breaking 40.4% (combined 115.1%). This is top 10 level although it’s worth noting that many of these matches were against mediocre opponents in International level events.
However, I feel that a slightly different angle is appropriate today. On a slow indoor court, I expect breaks of serve, as projected hold percentages around 60% and below indicate. In addition to this, both players are likely to be vulnerable retaining leads. Giorgi has recovered 57.6% of first break of set deficits across all sets since July 2014, and Cibulkova 61.5%. These figures are both in excess of the WTA mean, with Cibulkova (60.9% loss) also very vulnerable at losing break leads.
On this basis, it’s reasonable to assume that this will be a close match with a less than average chance of a dominant set. On hard or indoor hard courts in since January 2014, Giorgi – when priced 2.00 – 2.99 – has played 10 three set matches from a total of 19, and this figure is also the same for covering the main 21.5 game handicap mark. Cibulkova has played three sets 11/31 times when priced 1.50-1.99 on hard or indoor hard in the same time period, covering the over 21.5 game line 16/31. However, looking at the slightly lower over 20.5 game line, Cibulkova covered 19/31.
I feel that a portfolio of bets should work best for this match, splitting stakes across three outcomes.
Betting Recommendations: Recommendation: Back over 20.5 games at 1.80, over 2.5 sets at 2.40 and Giorgi to win at 2.27
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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