ATP Paris – Semi-Final – Novak Djokovic vs Stan Wawrinka
The final ATP main-level tournament is almost complete, with this afternoon’s action seeing two high quality semi-finals, with Andy Murray taking on David Ferrer, and Novak Djokovic facing Stan Wawrinka.
It’s the latter match that I want to focus on for today’s handicap betting preview, and this will be second on court at around 4pm UK time.
Djokovic is in his usual imperious late season form, and his record in matches between the US Open and the end of the season, since 2013, now stands at a stunning 54-1 (his solitary defeat came at the hands of Roger Federer).
This would indicate that Wawrinka is somewhat up against it today and the head to head series record, 21-4 in Djokovic’s favour, also illustrates this.
With my model taking into account this head to head record, as well as a significant hold/break combined percentage differential (19.3% on hard/indoor hard in the last 12 months and 17.7% on indoor hard only in the last 24 months), it indicated that value actually was on the world number one even at a short-priced 1.15.
This was then rubber-stamped by Djokovic’s record as a favourite priced under 1.20 against top 10 opposition on Indoor Hard, which is also nothing short of spectacular.
He’s won all nine career matches with this filter applied, and seven in straight sets. He’s covered -4.5 games on six occasions out of the nine matches, with all three wins using this criteria over Wawrinka being won in straight sets and covering this game handicap line.
Djokovic to win 2-0 is available at 1.57, with -4.5 games being priced at evens at the time of writing.
Given that those three matches with Wawrinka on today’s surface covered the -4.5 game line, and the historical success of Djokovic covering this line against top ten opponents in this odds range, I much prefer taking the bigger price on the Serb covering the game handicap as opposed to the set handicap. This also allows us the chance of winning a bet in a possible scenario where Wawrinka nicks a tiebreak (he has an excellent record in these) but loses a dominant set.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Djokovic -4.5 games at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
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