ATP Hamburg – Quarter-Final – Andreas Seppi vs Simone Bolelli
The Hamburg 500 event reaches the quarter-final stage today and in the battle of two Italian veterans, I like the younger of the duo to give us a nice handicap betting proposition today.
Andreas Seppi has had a very mediocre clay season, winning just two from five matches this year, both this week. This doesn’t improve over the last 12 months, with the 31 year old compiling a 3-5 record, holding 72.0% and breaking 22.8% (combined 94.8%).
Fellow countryman Bolelli’s record on the dirt makes for much better reading, holding 87.0% and breaking 20.0% in the last 12 months (combined 107.0%) from 15 matches, from which he has won nine.
These stats make a mockery of the market prices which currently show Seppi to be a marginal favourite at around 1.90, and it’s unsurprising that Bolelli’s price has seen a little nibble in the markets at the time of writing – my model made Bolelli a 1.72 favourite for this match.
Looking at handicap betting options, when Bolelli has won a clay best of three set match in the last three years on the ATP Tour, he has won by at least 3 games on 11/13 match wins – only this week’s 7-6 7-6 defeat of Lukas Rosol and a 3-6 7-5 7-6 win over Stefano Travaglia in the Rome Masters in 2014 did not cover this game handicap line, and he has covered this line 5/9 times priced between 1.60 and 2.50 in this time period.
This handicap line is currently available at 2.54, which makes for excellent value considering the hold/break stats and the historical handicap trends, and is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Recommendation: Back Simone Bolelli -2.5 games at 2.54
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