ATP Metz – Quarter-Final – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Nicolas Mahut
We are at the quarter-final stage in this week’s ATP events and after two rather unlucky losses, I like an all-French clash to get us back on track in North-East France this afternoon.
As has been mentioned already this week, Metz is a very fast indoor hard court, with one of the highest service hold percentages on the ATP Tour, and this translates into several handicap betting opportunities.
Bookmakers frequently disregard or under-estimate court speed as an influence on totals and using projected hold percentages (which do take into account conditions) my statistics indicated a 44.6% chance of no breaks in the first set of this match. This translates to around a 47% chance of a first set tiebreak (given that on occasion both players will break once) which illustrates clear value on the first set tiebreak at a generous price of 3.20.
In addition to this, the pace of Metz really suits Mahut, who loves quick courts. This is demonstrated by his superb record on grass and he has reached the semi-finals at this venue in the past. His record in the last two years on Indoor Hard is very solid indeed for a player of his rank (67), winning 9/17 matches, holding serve 87.5% and breaking opponents 14.0% (combined 101.5%). This are statistics that indicate he is around top 30 level for the surface.
Tsonga’s stats are similarly serve-dominated and he has also got a track record for covering over 22.5 games on Indoor hard when priced between 1.20 and 1.49. In these matches since January 2013 he has gone over this line on 10/13 occasions.
Historically, as a heavy favourite, he has a big issue winning games by a dominant margin and conditions, as well as a serve orientated opponent, should ensure that this is again the case today.
Recommendation: Back Over 22.5 games at 1.90, and Set 1 Tiebreak at 3.20
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